[US Election 2024] "No One Knows Who Will Win" Poll Shows 0.3%P Difference

"There has never been such a close race among so many states." (The Hill)

"There are almost no clues as to who will win." (The Guardian)

On November 2nd (local time), just three days before the U.S. presidential election on November 5th, major foreign media outlets are pouring out evaluations describing the unpredictable and foggy state of the race. With an average margin of just 0.3 percentage points confirmed in major polls, the two candidates are continuing last-minute campaigns in battleground states over the final weekend. They are making all-out efforts to bring not only undecided voters but also those indifferent to the election to the polls.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Average '0.3%P' Gap, Ultra-Close Polls

According to the latest average poll by The Hill, a congressional specialist media, Vice President Harris's approval rating stands at 48.3%, just 0.3 percentage points ahead of former President Trump at 48%. Within the margin of error, the gap has narrowed even more than a few days ago, making the election outcome even more unpredictable.

Recent polls show mixed results depending on the survey period, region, and polling organizations. In seven battleground states updated by The New York Times (NYT) on the day, former President Trump held a 1 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina, a 2 percentage point lead in Georgia, and a 3 percentage point lead in Arizona. The NYT analyzed, "Recent major polls have been tilting toward Trump," adding, "Although the margin was about 1 percentage point, Harris's lead has disappeared."

On the other hand, The Times and YouGov predicted in their final pre-election polls that Vice President Harris would win in four of the seven battleground states. Specifically, Harris was reported to have leads of 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 3 percentage points in Michigan, 4 percentage points in Wisconsin, and 1 percentage point in Nevada?states with the largest number of electoral votes and often called the "battlegrounds of battlegrounds." The Times explained, "Combining these with the other 43 states, which are typically clear blue or red states where results rarely deviate from expectations, Harris is projected to secure 276 of the 538 electoral votes, defeating Trump who is projected to get 262."

The Guardian reported, "As the final weekend of the presidential campaign approaches, Trump and Harris appear to be stuck in a permanent deadlock in the polls." The outlet particularly noted that key battlegrounds, such as Pennsylvania where both candidates are tied at 48%, are in an ultra-close race. Josh Clinton, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University, told NBC that out of 321 recent polls, 124 showed a margin of less than 1 percentage point. He emphasized, "It is not only surprising but an incredibly fierce competition."

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

All-Out Battle in Battleground States... Visiting 'Same Day, Same State' for 4 Consecutive Days

The reason the two candidates are raising their voices in battleground states during the final campaign days is precisely this context. Both Vice President Harris and former President Trump included North Carolina in their campaign stops that day. Besides being one of the seven battleground states, it was also the last day of early voting in North Carolina, which factored into their decision.

Major foreign media highlighted, "Harris and Trump visiting the same state on the same day marks the fourth consecutive day," noting, "This underscores the importance of the seven battleground states." North Carolina was won by former President Trump in the 2020 election, but the state also elected a Democratic governor on the same day. The Guardian assessed, "It gave hope to both parties."

Especially, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) pointed out that both candidates are targeting voters who have not yet decided whom to support or even whether to vote at all. This strategy aims to secure every single vote in an ultra-close race. WSJ analyzed, "Occasional voters are estimated to make up more than a quarter of all voters, whereas the undecided floating voters among registered voters account for only 3%."

The Republican Party is focusing its campaign efforts on these voters by having campaign workers visit homes to solicit support. Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said on a podcast, "Unlike before, we are focusing on voters who do not usually vote," adding, "We need to get them off the couch." The super PAC 'Priority USA,' which supports Vice President Harris, is also running campaigns encouraging these voters to cast their ballots. Data and technology strategy expert Carter Kalchik said, "This strategy will definitely increase turnout by 1 to 2 percentage points, and that is not insignificant."

According to the University of Florida Election Research Institute, more than 70 million Americans have already voted early. This corresponds to about 40% of the total voters (approximately 158.43 million) in the 2020 presidential election. Although it does not reach the record-high early voting rate set during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, it is still considered a high level. Polling agency Gallup predicted that early voting turnout for this year's election will reach 54%.

Typically, a high early voting rate has favored Democratic candidates. This has led to the term "Red Mirage" being coined in the U.S., referring to an early lead by Republicans in vote counting. However, local media outlets say it is difficult to make such a definitive judgment this year. Even former President Trump, who had previously expressed distrust about early voting fraud, has recently been actively encouraging early voting at his rallies, leading to estimates that many of his supporters have already voted.