[US Election 2024] Harris vs Trump, US-China Tech War Inevitable Regardless

"Harris is 'Scalpel', Trump is 'Hammer'"
China Strengthens Its Own Capabilities, Anticipates Counterattack

On the 5th, in the U.S. presidential election, analysts predict that regardless of whether former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, or Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party wins, the confrontation between the U.S. and China over technological supremacy will intensify.

According to major foreign media on the 1st, officials from the Biden administration and the Trump administration, industry experts, and representatives from both parties' election campaigns forecast that the U.S.-China technology war will become fiercer no matter who wins the presidential election.

Vice President Kamala Harris (left), a candidate in the U.S. presidential election, and former President Donald Trump [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Vice President Harris declared, "We will ensure that America, not China, wins in 21st-century competition." Former President Trump uses tariff increases as a kind of "panacea," controlling China's access to advanced technology through tariff hikes. Regardless of who is elected, the fight to curb China's military power and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities is bound to intensify.

Experts expect Vice President Harris to implement sharp regulations targeting specific entities, while former President Trump is likely to take a more direct approach. Sources close to both administrations said that Harris is more likely to pursue focused and organized sanctions compared to Trump. Bill Reinsch, who worked at the Department of Commerce during the Clinton administration, said, "Unlike Harris, who might use a 'scalpel,' Trump is more likely to use a 'hammer.' Trump's approach is comprehensive, which is most clearly seen in his tariff increase pledges."

The Biden administration announced a regulatory proposal last month banning the import and sale of connected cars equipped with Chinese software or hardware. In April this year, it passed legislation forcing the forced sale of the U.S. business rights of Chinese IT company ByteDance's video platform TikTok, citing national security reasons.

Peter Harrell, former national security advisor in the Biden administration, said, "We are witnessing a new front in the U.S.-China technological cold war focused on data, software, and connected devices." He added, "There is significant concern about Chinese companies having device access rights or update capabilities. Connected cars and TikTok are just the tip of the iceberg."

On the other hand, former President Trump is analyzed to move more swiftly and may attempt to sanction allied countries that oppose U.S. government actions. Trump repeatedly stated during his tenure that he would impose a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese imports.

Najak Nikakhtar, who worked at the Department of Commerce during the Trump administration, predicted that a second Trump administration would be "much more aggressive regarding export control policies toward China." He expects a significant increase in the number of sanctioned companies and restrictions on export licenses for U.S. technology to China.

Former President Trump added Huawei to the sanctions list during his tenure. He said, "It would not be surprising if the Trump administration restricted not only imports of Chinese chips but also certain products containing those chips."

If the U.S. strengthens technological sanctions, China is expected to bolster its own capabilities and launch counterattacks. Bloomberg evaluated that although the Trump administration began serious containment of China by imposing high tariffs in 2018, China has since solidified its position in new industries.

Bloomberg Intelligence and Bloomberg Economics rated China as a global leader in five of 13 core technology areas: electric vehicles and lithium batteries, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), solar panels, graphene (a type of next-generation nano new material), and high-speed rail. The number of technology areas where China leads globally increased from three at the announcement of "Made in China 2025" in 2015 to five this year. Bloomberg forecasts that by 2030, LNG transport ships will be added, increasing the total to six.

At the same time, China is expected to hold key minerals and launch countermeasures. Last year, China introduced export restrictions on germanium and gallium, metals widely used in semiconductor manufacturing, citing national security interests. In October last year, just days after the U.S. tightened semiconductor export restrictions, China announced new regulations on certain graphite products used in electric vehicle batteries. In June this year, it also introduced new export restrictions on rare earth elements essential for military equipment and home appliances.