WSJ "Republicans Narrow Democrats' Early Voting Lead"
Attention on Whether It Will Be a Factor in the Tight Race
With the U.S. presidential election just two weeks away, it has been revealed that Republican supporters are participating in early voting more actively than in any previous election. As Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump engage in a neck-and-neck race, attention is focused on the impact that changes in voting methods among Republican voters may have on this election.
On the 22nd (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) cited data from the University of Florida Election Research Institute, reporting that more than 15 million U.S. voters have cast early votes either in person or by mail, with one-third of them, 5.3 million, voting in the seven key battleground states.
According to the institute, based on states where voters must register their party affiliation, 47% of early voters were Democratic supporters, while 33% were Republican supporters. Regarding mail-in voting, one of the early voting methods, among the ballots submitted and collected by local election boards, 49% were from Democratic supporters and 31% from Republican supporters. In the 2020 presidential election, the proportions of Democratic-leaning and Republican-leaning voters who voted by mail were 52% and 24%, respectively, indicating a significant increase in mail-in voting among Republican supporters over the past four years.
Historically, Democratic supporters have been more active in early voting in U.S. presidential elections, which is why higher early voting rates have been considered advantageous for Democrats. However, in this election, early voting among Republican-leaning voters has increased substantially compared to previous elections, signaling a shift in voting methods among Republican supporters. With former President Trump at the center, the cohesion among Republican supporters has strengthened, leading voters to feel less need to wait until Election Day.
James Blair, Political Director of the Trump campaign, stated, "We are pleased that the Republicans are eroding the Democratic advantage seen in the 2020 election," adding, "It is too early to declare victory, but it is very positive that things are shifting in our (favorable) direction."
As the U.S. presidential election moves toward an extremely close contest, attention is also focused on the impact that the proactive early voting movement among Republican voters will have on next month's election. According to a survey conducted the previous day by USA Today and Suffolk University of 1,000 voters, Vice President Harris recorded 45% support, while former President Trump had 44%, with only a 1 percentage point gap between the two candidates. Among voters who have already cast early ballots, 63% supported Vice President Harris, while 34% supported former President Trump.
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