The Owner of Pennsylvania Becomes the Owner of the White House [US Election 2024]

Holds the Most Delegates (19) Among 7 Battleground States
Winner Chosen Except Twice Since the 1972 Presidential Election

Ahead of the November 5 U.S. presidential election, Republican candidate former President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris have launched a final all-out effort to win the votes in seven battleground states. Among these battleground states, there is one place that neither candidate can afford to lose: Pennsylvania, known as the "battleground of battlegrounds."

According to AdImpact, a U.S. election campaign data tracking company, on the 27th (local time), both former President Trump and Vice President Harris are spending the most money on election advertisements in Pennsylvania among the 50 states. The total amount spent and planned to be spent by the two candidates' campaigns on Pennsylvania election ads from March 6 to election day on November 5 is $210.9 million (approximately 291.1 billion KRW). This amount is more than double that of second-place Michigan ($99 million) and nearly ten times that of Nevada ($27 million), which ranks last among the seven battleground states. The combined number of appearances by the presidential and vice-presidential candidates in Pennsylvania over the past three months exceeds 50 times, the highest among all 50 states.

Why are the two candidates so obsessed with Pennsylvania? It is because Pennsylvania holds the largest number of electoral votes (19) among the key battlegrounds. The U.S. election system adopts a winner-takes-all approach, where the candidate who receives the most votes in a state is awarded all of that state's electoral votes. To become president, a candidate must secure a majority of 270 out of 538 electoral votes allocated proportionally across the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Electoral districts outside the seven battleground states show clear support for specific candidates based on regional political leanings. Therefore, winning Pennsylvania, which has the most electoral votes among the battleground states, is decisive for victory. According to Nate Silver, a star statistician known as a "kingmaker" in U.S. elections, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania in this year's election has over a 90% chance of becoming president. This is also why Vice President Harris previously considered Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as a running mate.

Pennsylvania has chosen the final winner in every presidential election except twice since former President Richard Nixon's victory in 1972. In 2000, former Vice President Al Gore (Democrat) and in 2004, former Senator John Kerry, both Democratic presidential candidates, won Pennsylvania but ultimately failed to win the presidency.

Moreover, Pennsylvania was the state that enabled former President Trump to win the 2016 election despite receiving fewer nationwide votes than his opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden defeated former President Trump by about 1.16% (80,555 votes) to enter the White House.

Geographically and demographically, Pennsylvania is considered a "microcosm of America." Along with Wisconsin and Michigan, it is part of the Rust Belt, a once-thriving manufacturing region that has declined, but it now relies heavily on a large energy industry based on abundant shale oil and agriculture. Political leanings are evenly distributed, reflecting its diverse industrial structure. The densely populated eastern city of Philadelphia and western city of Pittsburgh lean Democratic, while the vast rural areas between the two major cities strongly support the Republican Party.

In terms of population, whites still make up the absolute majority (74%), but immigrant communities, including Latinos, are rapidly growing. In the 2016 election, former President Trump won Pennsylvania by gaining support from blue-collar white workers in rural areas, while in the 2020 election, President Biden secured Pennsylvania with backing from professionals living in the suburbs of large cities like Philadelphia. Although Vice President Harris helped reclaim Pennsylvania with Biden four years ago, the lower voter turnout in the suburban areas of Philadelphia, where Black voters make up 40%, means it is not yet a time for complacency.

In response, Vice President Harris has launched efforts to secure the "home base" vote. She has proposed the "Opportunity Agenda for Black Men," which includes offering up to $20,000 (about 27 million KRW) in loan forgiveness to entrepreneurs in underdeveloped areas and easing access to the recreational marijuana industry.

On the other hand, former President Trump, who dramatically showcased a "strongman" image after surviving an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July, has pledged to attract manufacturing plants and create jobs through imposing ultra-high tariffs, courting union votes. He has also reiterated his intention to prevent the acquisition of U.S. Steel, a symbol of American manufacturing located in Pittsburgh, by Japan's Nippon Steel. Earlier this month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk appeared as a guest speaker at a Butler campaign event to lend support. Last week, former President Trump was seen at a McDonald's in Pennsylvania making French fries, emphasizing his image as a man of the people.