North Korea's Involvement in Ukraine War Raises Security Tensions on the Korean Peninsula

Serious Impact Expected on North Korean Nuclear Issue and Korea-Russia Relations
Will a Confrontation Between the Korea-US Alliance and North Korea-Russia Alliance Take Shape?

As it has been confirmed that North Korea has deployed troops to assist Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, analysts predict that this will cause significant repercussions not only on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia but also on the global security environment.

According to the National Intelligence Service on the 18th, North Korea is expected to dispatch a force of 12,000 troops from four special forces brigades to the war in Ukraine. Already, 1,500 personnel have been transferred to Vladivostok, Russia. While North Korea has previously sent small numbers of training instructors overseas for foreign currency earning purposes, this is the first time it has deployed a large-scale ground force abroad.

Related officials view this deployment as an actual combat participation based on the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty" signed between North Korea and Russia in June. Although North Korea has supplied Russia with large quantities of weapons such as artillery shells and short-range ballistic missiles, the dispatch of a large elite force is considered to be on a completely different level from previous military cooperation.

Given that North Korea-Russia relations are expected to remain closely tied in the long term regardless of the outcome of the Ukraine war, this is anticipated to become a decisive obstacle to the North Korean nuclear issue and Korea-Russia relations. Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has sided with North Korea whenever possible, including terminating the activities of the UN Security Council’s expert panel on North Korean sanctions. Going forward, Russia is likely to blatantly ignore sanctions further and adopt a more explicit stance recognizing North Korea as a "de facto nuclear state."

Korea-Russia relations will inevitably suffer damage as well. The government announced on the same day that it will respond to North Korea’s troop deployment by mobilizing "all available means," which is expected to include lethal weapon support to Ukraine?a red line that Russia has set in Korea-Russia relations.

Concerns also arise over the benefits North Korea will receive from Russia in exchange for its troop deployment. Considering that North Korea decided to deploy troops despite the risks of casualties and external criticism, it is highly likely that Russia will provide military technologies far more valuable than the weapons it has previously supplied. Russia may assist North Korea in developing intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) atmospheric reentry technology and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) guidance technology. Technologies related to nuclear submarine construction for submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launches, as well as propulsion and satellite body technologies for military reconnaissance satellites, are also being discussed.

Furthermore, the possibility of Russia militarily intervening to assist North Korea in the event of a contingency on the Korean Peninsula has increased. With Russia as a strong backer, North Korea’s provocative behavior may become more audacious. Moreover, the fact that North Korean troops will gain real combat experience in Russia?something they have effectively been unable to do since the Korean War?also poses a threat to us.