The U.S. administration under Joe Biden has notified the Israeli government that if the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip does not improve within the next 30 days, U.S. weapons support could be suspended. This is regarded as the strongest warning issued by the U.S. since the outbreak of the Gaza Strip war in October last year. Israel is also reviewing the letter and has stated that it is taking it seriously. However, it remains uncertain whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has affirmed the eradication of Hamas and a hardline response, will accept the Biden administration's demands.
Amid worsening Gaza situation... U.S. warns "Weapons supply will be halted if no humanitarian measures within 30 days"
According to the U.S. State Department on the 15th (local time), Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently sent a joint letter to Israel stating that if the current humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian Gaza Strip continues, it could violate U.S. laws regulating overseas military assistance. The four-page letter, dated the 13th, was delivered to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer.
The letter expressed concern over the sharp decline in international humanitarian aid reaching Gaza due to Israel's blockade operations, resulting in widespread hunger and suffering. Blinken and Austin referenced Israel's March promise not to block humanitarian aid to Gaza and emphasized that the U.S. must "continuously assess" whether this commitment is being upheld under U.S. law and National Security Memorandum 20 (NSM-20). They warned that based on such assessments, concrete measures such as suspending weapons support to Israel could follow.
Blinken and Austin stated in the letter, "We are particularly concerned that recent Israeli actions are rapidly worsening the situation in Gaza," and urged, "Israel must take a series of specific steps within 30 days as promised to us." Specifically, they mentioned allowing at least 350 relief trucks into Gaza, opening additional humanitarian corridors, and canceling evacuation orders in areas where operations are unnecessary.
Residents of Gaza have been suffering from infrastructure collapse and shortages of essentials such as food, medicine, and fuel as the war between the Palestinian armed group Hamas and Israel has continued for over a year. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller confirmed at a press briefing that "what we have observed over the past few months is that humanitarian aid has not been sustained," and stated, "The Israeli government has an obligation to provide (humanitarian) aid." According to the State Department, aid deliveries to Gaza have decreased by more than 50% since the first half of this year, reaching the lowest level since the outbreak of last year's Gaza war in September.
Earlier, UN spokesperson St?phane Dujarric revealed that the UN attempted to provide humanitarian aid 54 times to northern Gaza this month, but only one delivery was allowed due to Israeli refusal. Israel claims that most of the aid delivered has a dual purpose of assisting Hamas. It appears Israel views the humanitarian supplies entering Gaza as obstacles to achieving the war objective of completely dismantling Hamas. Dr. Husam Abu Safiya of Kamal Adwan Hospital in the Gaza refugee camp urged support via social media, stating, "Everything is running out," and "I hope everyone takes this appeal seriously before it is too late."
U.S. pressures Israel ahead of presidential election, mindful of Arab vote?
Notably, the letter sent by the U.S. to Israel was made public as the Biden administration is persuading Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to restrain excessive military provocations in the Middle East ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.
Axios, which released a copy of the letter before the State Department briefing, noted, "Israel, fighting on multiple fronts, heavily depends on U.S. military support," and described the letter as "the most comprehensive list of demands the U.S. has made to Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza war." The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also reported, "The mention of potentially reducing arms sales is the strongest threat from the U.S. since last year's Gaza war," and stated, "This letter implicitly acknowledges that Israel's actions in Gaza violate U.S. law."
The Guardian and other major foreign media pointed out concerns within the Democratic Party that due to the Middle East situation, Vice President Kamala Harris, the party's presidential candidate, could lose votes to Republican candidate former President Donald Trump in key battleground states. Currently, there is growing resentment among Arab and Muslim Americans, who have traditionally leaned Democratic, toward the Biden administration's support for Israel. The Arab American Political Action Committee (AAPAC), which supported Biden in the 2020 election, announced it will not endorse any candidate in this election.
However, spokesperson Miller avoided directly answering what specific measures would follow if Israel does not comply with U.S. demands. He also emphasized that the letter is a private diplomatic communication and not a decision made out of concern for the impact on the upcoming November U.S. election. John Kirby, National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House, also stated that the letter was not written as a "threat," but rather "to repeatedly convey the urgency and seriousness we feel. It is to emphasize the need to dramatically increase humanitarian aid."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden (right) [Image source=AP Yonhap News]
Israel "Reviewing"... Uncertain if it will accept U.S. demands
It remains uncertain whether Israel will actively accept the Biden administration's requests. An Israeli official based in Washington confirmed to major foreign media that Israel is currently reviewing the U.S. letter. He said, "Israel is taking this seriously," and "We will discuss the concerns raised in the letter with the U.S. side." On the other hand, the Civil Coordination Office (COGAT), a Palestinian civilian affairs organization under the Israeli Ministry of Defense, defended itself in a statement, saying, "Israel is not blocking humanitarian goods from entering Gaza."
Recently, Israel has expanded the front lines from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and concerns about a full-scale war in the Middle East persist. Lebanese authorities confirmed that at least 41 people died due to Israeli attacks on the same day. The Lebanese government's emergency committee reported, "In the past 24 hours, 146 Israeli attacks targeting Lebanon were identified," and "Since the Israeli invasion began last month, there have been 10,012 attacks." CNN reported that at least 40 Palestinians were killed overnight due to Israeli airstrikes on Gaza on the same day.
One of the biggest factors fueling fears of a Middle East war is Israel's announced retaliatory measures against Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has promised strong retaliation, reportedly conveyed during a call with President Biden on the 9th that Israel would not strike Iran's nuclear or oil facilities. The New York Times (NYT) noted, "This concession could reduce the immediate possibility of a full-scale war between the two hostile countries (Israel and Iran)," but also pointed out, "Even if Israel does not attack Iran's nuclear or oil facilities, the possibility of strikes on military facilities remains. If Israel's retaliation escalates, it could lead to a vicious cycle of retaliatory attacks from Iran." Netanyahu's office stated in a press release that "We listen to the U.S. opinion, but the final decision will be made based on our national interests."
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