"Protect the Garden"... By-Elections as 'Judgment on the Regime', What Are the Key Points to Watch?

Busan Geumjeong-gu Mayor Election Fierce Competition Between Ruling and Opposition
Variable is Kim Geon-hee Risk... Ruling Party's Support Rate Weak
Honam, Democratic, Innovation Party, and Progressive Party Support Rates Neck and Neck

The October 16 by-elections are escalating into a 'second judgment on the regime,' intensifying the competition between the ruling and opposition parties. It is believed that the by-election results could decisively influence the future government's and ruling party's approach to the 'Kim Geon-hee special investigation law' and 'Lee Jae-myung judicial risks.' Additionally, the proxy battles among leading presidential candidates and the opposition's competition in the Honam stronghold are also testing each party leader's grip on their party.

In political circles, the Busan Geumjeong District Mayor election is considered the most watched area in this by-election. The ruling party is confident of victories in two of the four local government by-elections (Busan Geumjeong District, Incheon Ganghwa County, Jeonnam Yeonggwang, and Gokseong County), specifically in Incheon and Busan. Notably, Busan Geumjeong is a traditional stronghold of the ruling party, where candidate Yoon Seok-yeol secured 60.7% of the vote in the last presidential election. In the April 10 general election's proportional representation vote, 48.17% of Busan Geumjeong residents supported the People Power Party.

The ruling party's variable is the Kim Geon-hee risk. A noticeable decline in support for the People Power Party is evident in this area. As suspicions surrounding Mrs. Kim reach a critical point, a sense of crisis is emerging.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The reason the Democratic Party secretly hopes for a win in Busan Geumjeong also lies in the 'regime judgment theory.' The opposition is attempting to unify candidates, but it is proving difficult. Previously, Democratic Party candidate Kim Kyung-ji and the People’s Innovation Party candidate Ryu Je-sung agreed on the afternoon of the 4th to decide the final opposition candidate after a debate, but the schedule reportedly fell through. Democratic Party spokesperson Kim Sung-hoe said that morning, "The Innovation Party suggested including provisions to prevent reverse selection of candidates, but we could not accept such conditions." If candidate unification is achieved, political circles expect the opposition's vote share in Busan Geumjeong to exceed 40%.

The competition between the Democratic Party and the Innovation Party, both vying for dominance in the Honam region including Jeonnam Yeonggwang and Gokseong counties, is also a key point to watch. Particularly, the Yeonggwang County mayoral by-election is a close three-way race among opposition candidates. According to a survey conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Media Tribune from the 29th to 30th of last month, targeting 501 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Yeonggwang County, the support rates for mayoral candidates were Democratic Party’s Jang Se-il at 32.5%, Innovation Party’s Jang Hyun at 30.9%, and Progressive Party’s Lee Seok-ha at 30.1%, showing a tight race among the three candidates. The Jeonnam Gokseong County mayoral by-election is also a two-way contest between Democratic Party candidate Jo Sang-rae and Innovation Party candidate Park Woong-du. Choi Bong-ui of the People Power Party and independent candidate Lee Seong-ro are in pursuit.

The People’s Innovation Party is expecting victory based on its high support in Honam during the last general election. In fact, before the April 10 general election in Jeonnam Gokseong, the Innovation Party garnered 39.88% support, trailing the Democratic Alliance (41.13%) by 2.25 percentage points. The party under pressure is the Democratic Party. If the Democratic Party fails to secure a win in its stronghold, Lee Jae-myung’s presidential path in the Honam region could also be affected. For detailed polling information, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.