US Expert: "North Korea Can Produce 112 Nuclear Warheads" [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Possibility of Securing Fissile Materials Such as Highly Enriched Uranium and Plutonium

It has been claimed that North Korea has secured fissile materials (highly enriched uranium and plutonium) capable of producing up to 112 nuclear weapons.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation, a U.S. foreign policy and security think tank, stated this on the 26th at the 2024 South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, citing a paper published in June by fellow RAND researcher Gregory Jones. According to the paper, as of the end of last year, North Korea's stockpile of fissile materials included approximately 85 kg of plutonium and 1,000 to 1,900 kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU). The amount of plutonium held by North Korea is somewhat higher than the 70 kg estimated in the 2022 Defense White Paper.

The paper assumes that North Korea produced 110 to 200 kg of HEU annually over ten years and consumed about 100 kg for nuclear tests, estimating that as of the end of last year, North Korea possessed between 1,000 and 1,900 kg of HEU. In conclusion, assuming that producing one nuclear weapon requires about 5 kg of plutonium or 20 kg of HEU, North Korea is calculated to have the capability to produce between 67 and 112 nuclear weapons.

There are expectations that North Korea will conduct additional nuclear tests to demonstrate nuclear miniaturization. The timing is anticipated to be around the upcoming November U.S. presidential election. If North Korea presses the nuclear test button around the U.S. election, it would be the first such test in seven years since September 2017, when it claimed success in testing a hydrogen bomb for intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) deployment.

South Korea and U.S. Expect North Korean Nuclear Test Around U.S. Election

South Korean and U.S. authorities believe that North Korea could carry out a seventh nuclear test within days if Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, makes the decision. On the 26th, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) forecasted the possibility of North Korea conducting a seventh nuclear test after the November U.S. presidential election. During a full meeting of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, when questioned about the possibility of North Korea’s seventh nuclear test, the NIS reported that "while it is possible before the U.S. election, various military provocations such as ICBM and satellite launches exist, so it may occur after the election," according to committee secretaries Lee Seong-gwon of the People Power Party and Park Seon-won of the Democratic Party. The NIS analyzed that North Korea possesses about 70 kg of plutonium and a significant amount of highly enriched uranium, enough to produce at least double-digit numbers of nuclear weapons.

Notably, North Korea has already revealed a tactical nuclear warhead named ‘Hwasan-31’. North Korean state media unusually released news and photos of Kim Jong-un visiting a weapons-grade nuclear material production facility densely packed with centrifuges producing highly enriched uranium (HEU), the raw material for nuclear warheads. To prove the miniaturization of nuclear warheads, nuclear testing is essential. This is why there are predictions that North Korea might conduct a small-scale nuclear test for the seventh nuclear test. The idea is that North Korea only needs to demonstrate the power of the small nuclear warheads that can be mounted on missiles it has already revealed.

Small-Scale Nuclear Test Possible to Prove Hwasan-31

North Korea has been upgrading missiles capable of carrying miniaturized nuclear warheads. This month, on the 12th and 18th, North Korea conducted successive test launches of improved versions of the short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) KN-25 and KN-23, resuming missile provocations that had been quiet since July. North Korea claims that tactical nuclear warheads can be mounted on more than ten types of weapons, including the 600mm super-large multiple rocket launcher (KN-25), unmanned underwater attack vehicle Haeil, Hwasal-1 and Hwasal-2 cruise missiles, KN-24 (Atacus), and mini submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). Military authorities estimate the yield of Hwasan-31 to be 10 kt (1 kt equals the explosive power of 1,000 tons of TNT). During the third nuclear test in March 2009, North Korea demonstrated an explosive yield of 5 kt.

If Miniaturization Succeeds, Entire South Korea Within Strike Range

If North Korea mounts Hwasan-31 on eight types of new ballistic missiles developed to strike South Korea, including KN-23, KN-24, and KN-25, the threat of nuclear strikes across all of South Korea becomes a reality. The KN-23 (maximum range 800 km), KN-24 (600 km), and KN-25 (400 km) can all reach the entire territory of South Korea. Previously, on the 4th of last month, North Korea reportedly held a ceremony to deliver 250 new tactical ballistic missile launchers to operational units deployed in the front lines. Each launcher is equipped with four launch tubes, so theoretically, if all 250 launchers are activated, a salvo of 1,000 missiles could be launched simultaneously.