Harris 51% vs Trump 48%... Leading in Three-Way Race as Well

PBS·NPR·Marist Poll
Harris Leads in Three-Way Race Against Kennedy Junior

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is shaking up the race that former President Donald Trump had been leading. She is ahead of Trump within the margin of error in the polls and also holds an advantage in a three-way contest.

According to a poll released on the 6th (local time) by PBS News and NPR, commissioned to the polling agency Marist, Vice President Harris's approval rating stood at 51%, ahead of former President Trump’s 48% within the margin of error (±3.3%).

Harris 51% vs Trump 48%... Leading in Three-Way Race as Well

In the poll they released on the 22nd of last month, former President Trump (47%) was ahead of Vice President Harris (45%) by 2 percentage points, so this marks a reversal.

The survey was conducted from the 1st to the 4th of this month, targeting 1,613 adults. This was before Harris nominated Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.

In the three-way race including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Vice President Harris still maintained an advantage. Harris’s support was 48%, former President Trump’s was 45%, and Kennedy Jr.’s was 5%. It appears that Trump is more affected by Kennedy Jr.’s continued candidacy.

Especially among Black voters, college-educated white women, and unaffiliated female voters, Harris’s support surged significantly. According to NPR, their support has increased by 20 to 30 percentage points compared to when Harris was first mentioned as a Democratic candidate.

In terms of economic policy, she still trails former President Trump. However, compared to June when President Joe Biden (45%) trailed Trump (54%) by 9 percentage points, the current gap has narrowed to Trump at 51% and Harris at 48%.

On immigration, one of the key issues in the U.S. presidential election, Harris’s support has risen above President Biden’s but still trails former President Trump (52%) by 6 percentage points.

Vice President Harris’s strongest policy advantage is abortion rights, with a support rate of 56%. In contrast, former President Trump’s support on this issue was only 41%.