China Faces 'Population Shock' in 2061... 19 Million Annual Deaths Expected

Fudan University Researchers: "Sharp Increase in Deaths Starting 2040"

China's population issues, such as low birth rates and aging, are coming to the surface. A study has revealed that by 2061, an annual death toll of 19 million could trigger a 'population shock.'

On the 16th, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported this, citing research published in the bimonthly journal "Population Research" by a team from Fudan University in China at the end of May. The researchers stated that as the world's second-largest economy, China, which has benefited from the demographic dividend, will see the annual number of deaths peak at 19 million in 2061. This figure surpasses the entire population of the Netherlands (18 million) as of last year.

The demographic dividend refers to the effect where the proportion of the working-age population within the total population increases, reducing the dependency ratio and promoting economic growth. The researchers explained in their report, "The enormous number of elderly deaths is a natural consequence of changes in the population structure, but China's peak death rate is approaching at an unprecedented speed, which will cause serious problems for families and society as a whole."

As of last year, China's death toll was 11.1 million, exceeding the number of newborns (9 million). China's population has declined for two consecutive years since 2022, and the United Nations predicts that India will surpass China to become the most populous country. The population aged 65 and over in China stood at 216.8 million at the end of last year, accounting for 15.4% of the total population.

The researchers particularly emphasized that the 'boomer generation' born before the one-child policy in the 1980s is rapidly aging, causing death rates to surge from 2040 onward, and stressed the need to prepare measures to address the upcoming challenges. They recommended strengthening mid- to long-term plans for funeral services to prevent social conflicts such as costly deaths and expensive graves, providing legal services for the elderly, and preventing inheritance disputes. Additionally, they added, "Despite various policies in China, the population of women of childbearing age is decreasing, and attitudes toward childbirth are changing, so China's birth rate will remain at a low level."