North Korea "Will Launch Satellite Within a Week"... Attempting to Divide South Korea, Japan, and China?

Satellite Launch Plan Notified by Japan Just Before Summit
Possibility of Follow-up Launch of 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite No.1'
Will Korea, China, and Japan Speak with One Voice on North Korea's Satellite Launch?

North Korea has notified plans to launch a satellite just before the South Korea-Japan-China summit. It is expected to be related to the second military reconnaissance satellite prepared with technical support from Russia. Analysts suggest that North Korea aims to clearly delineate the regional confrontation line under the new Cold War structure at a time when momentum for South Korea-Japan-China cooperation could be established.

According to Japan's Kyodo News and others, Japan's Cabinet Secretariat announced in the early morning of the 27th that North Korea notified it would launch a rocket carrying a satellite between that day and the 4th of next month, and plans to set three maritime danger zones accordingly. The notified danger zones include two locations in the West Sea southwest of North Korea and one location in the Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines, all outside Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

North Korea Successfully Launches Reconnaissance Satellite 'Manlilkyung-1' [Image Source=Yonhap News]

During his visit to South Korea, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida instructed thorough information gathering and analysis regarding North Korea's satellite launch notification and strongly urged the launch suspension based on cooperation between South Korea and the United States. Lee Jun-il, head of the North Korea nuclear diplomacy planning division at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jeffrey Park, senior U.S. State Department official for North Korea, and Namazu Hiroyuki, director of the Asia-Oceania Bureau at Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, agreed through telephonic consultations to demand North Korea halt the launch.

Last November, North Korea also announced plans to launch a military reconnaissance satellite and set and notified similar maritime danger zones. At that time, North Korea successfully placed its first military reconnaissance satellite into orbit and declared it would launch three additional satellites within this year. Although the first reconnaissance satellite reached orbit, it is assessed to be non-functional. However, the South Korean government understands that North Korea has been focusing all efforts on launching the second satellite with technical support from Russia. This implies that the upcoming satellite launch could differ from the first.

A senior government official revealed that a large number of Russian technicians visited North Korea to assist with the reconnaissance satellite launch, and North Korea conducted engine combustion tests far more frequently than expected to meet verification standards. The official said, "The passing criteria set by the Russian technicians are high," adding, "Last year, due to Kim Jong-un's anxiety, they launched the satellite anyway, but now the atmosphere is that it must be a complete success."

Jang Young-geun, head of the Missile Center at the National Security Strategy Institute, said, "Since the expected impact points of the launch vehicle provided by North Korea are the same as last November, it is expected that the first and second stage propulsion systems of the launch vehicle are the same," and evaluated, "If North Korea launches three additional satellites this year, it will likely acquire information on the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and the U.S. military base in Guam more frequently by shortening the average revisit period."

President Yoon Suk-yeol is shaking hands while holding separate bilateral talks with Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council of China (left in the photo), and Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan, at the Presidential Office in Yongsan, Seoul, on the 26th.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

There is also analysis that North Korea is attempting to sow discord in South Korea-Japan cooperation by timing the satellite launch notification. President Yoon Suk-yeol, Prime Minister Kishida, and Premier Li Qiang of China will hold the South Korea-Japan-China summit that morning. North Korea's nuclear and missile issues are also expected to be on the agenda. In this situation, it is assessed that North Korea aims to clearly draw the confrontation line in the region between South Korea-United States-Japan and North Korea-China-Russia.

Given North Korea's recent overt close cooperation with Russia, it also appears to be a move to check China's actions, considered the "weakest link" in the trilateral cooperation. It will be important to observe whether a unified voice regarding North Korea's satellite launch notification emerges from the outcomes of the summit that day.