Why Did 51cm Ballots Cause a Surge in Invalid Votes? Analyzing Past Elections [News SeolCham]

⑭ Surge in Invalid Votes After Semi-Linked Voting 'Fact'
Increase in Invalid Votes in Constituencies with Controversial Remarks
Significant Political Protest Meaning, but Possible Marking Errors
Invalid Vote Rate Below 1% in 16th-20th Presidential Elections

The mixed-member proportional representation system is being criticized as the main culprit behind the record-breaking number of invalid votes in the April 10 general election. This is because the increase in the number of political parties and the lengthening of the ballot paper caused greater confusion among voters, leading to more invalid votes. Comparing the number of invalid votes in past elections based on historical data shows that the length of the ballot paper did indeed influence the increase in invalid votes.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Invalid votes refer to ballots that are not recognized as valid markings. Unlike abstentions (non-voting), invalid votes carry a serious warning, criticism, and protest against the political sphere. Both do not count toward any candidate’s vote tally, but invalid votes are counted as valid votes and thus serve as meaningful data for political analysis.

In this general election, invalid votes also expressed criticism and protest against issues such as politicians’ moral controversies, the recurrence of manipulative satellite parties, and extreme factional confrontations. In fact, in Suwon-jeong, Gyeonggi Province, where candidates faced backlash over offensive remarks, the number of invalid votes exceeded the vote difference between the first and second place candidates. Kim Jun-hyeok of the Democratic Party won over Lee Soo-jung of the People Power Party by only 2,377 votes, which is about half the number of invalid votes (4,696). If some of the invalid votes had gone to Lee, the election outcome might have changed. Both candidates had been involved in controversies over remarks such as 'sexual bribery involving female university students' and 'a whole green onion.' Looking back at previous elections, this is an unusual figure. In the Suwon-jeong district, invalid votes numbered around 1,000: 1,397 in the 21st election, 940 in the 20th, and 1,271 in the 19th.

In Ansan-gap, Gyeonggi Province, where Yang Moon-seok of the Democratic Party, who faced a 'fraudulent loan' controversy, was elected, 2,308 invalid votes were cast?more than in neighboring areas. Invalid votes in Ansan-eul and Ansan-byeong were counted as 1,789 and 1,367, respectively. Analysts suggest that voters’ anger and disappointment manifested in a large number of invalid votes.

Voter confusion is also a background factor behind the surge in invalid votes. With the introduction of the mixed-member proportional representation system, multiple proportional parties emerged, lengthening the ballot paper and likely increasing marking errors. In the 17th general election, when the current two-vote system (where each voter casts one vote for a district candidate and one for a party list) was first implemented, there were 14 proportional parties (ballot length 24.7 cm). This number gradually increased to 15 parties (26.0 cm) in the 18th election, 20 parties (31.2 cm) in the 19th, and 21 parties (33.5 cm) in the 20th.

Especially in the 21st general election, when the mixed-member proportional system was first applied, the number of parties surged to 35 (48.1 cm), and the number of invalid votes jumped from 670,000 to 1.23 million, an increase of 1.8 times. The invalid vote rate (invalid votes as a percentage of total votes), which had been around 1?2%, also rose to 4.2% in the 21st election. In this election, with 38 parties listed, 1.31 million invalid votes were cast, breaking the all-time record. This is about four times the number of invalid votes in the 17th election (300,000) and even exceeds the votes received by the Reform New Party, which secured two seats (1.03 million votes).

Presidential elections tend to have fewer invalid votes than general elections. With around 10 candidates, the possibility of marking errors is lower than in proportional representation voting. Except for the 15th presidential election, which had the highest invalid vote rate, the rates were all below 1%: 0.89% in the 16th, 0.50% in the 17th, 0.41% in the 18th, 0.41% in the 19th, and 0.9% in the 20th.

There have been cases in presidential elections where invalid votes exceeded the vote difference between the first and second place candidates. In the 15th presidential election held in 1997, invalid votes numbered 400,195, which was more than the vote difference between Kim Dae-jung of the New Korea Party and Lee Hoi-chang of the Grand National Party (390,557 votes).

In the most recent 20th presidential election, invalid votes (307,542) also exceeded the vote difference between Yoon Seok-youl of the People Power Party and Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (247,077 votes). Analysts suggest that the high number of invalid votes?2.3 times that of the previous election (135,773)?was influenced by the withdrawal of Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party and Kim Dong-yeon of the New Wave Party after the ballots had been printed. Unlike early voting, where ballots are printed on-site, the main election uses pre-printed ballots, so there was no separate 'withdrawn' mark in their candidate boxes, likely causing marking errors among voters.