[Opinion] Did the People Power Party Really Suffer a Crushing Defeat in the General Election?

Increased Seats Compared to Previous General Election, 45% Public Support
Reform Momentum Must Not Be Lost Including 3 Major Reforms

It is said that the People Power Party suffered a crushing defeat in the 22nd general election. Looking over the results, that seems to be the case. The ruling party, the People Power Party, won 90 constituency seats, plus 18 seats from its satellite party, the People’s Future Party, totaling 108 seats. The opposition, the Democratic Party of Korea, secured 161 constituency seats and 14 seats from its satellite party, the Democratic United Party, making 175 seats. But how does this compare to the 21st general election? The People Power Party gained 5 seats, while the Democratic Party lost 5 seats. Simply put, compared to four years ago, the gap between the two major parties has narrowed by 10 seats.

In fact, the People Power Party performed better than the visible numbers suggest. Consider the demographic and political structure of South Korea. Those who experienced the Korean War and the rapid economic growth of the 1970s as adults tend to support the People Power Party. On the other hand, the generation known as the 386 generation, who were active in the 1980s democratization movement, tend to support the Democratic Party. A person born in 1960 and entering university in 1980 is now 64 years old.

In other words, among the older population, roughly those aged 65 and above tend to support the People Power Party, while those younger tend to support the Democratic Party. The average life expectancy in Korea is 83 years. It is reasonable to assume that a significant number of People Power Party supporters have naturally decreased over the past four years. Looking further ahead, the next general election in four years will likely be more favorable to the Democratic Party. Political leanings do not change easily. For the next 20 years or so, the Democratic Party is likely to gain strength year by year.

Also, in this election, the Democratic Party received 14.76 million votes (50.5%), while the People Power Party received 13.18 million votes (45.1%). The seat count of 175 to 108 is actually more favorable to the Democratic Party than the popular vote suggests. This phenomenon arises because electoral districts are divided into small units, and many races were decided by just a few votes. This is not a unique occurrence this time; a similar situation happened in the 21st general election. Looking at the vote shares by constituency, the Democratic Party had 49.9%, and the People Power Party had 41.5%. The gap of 180 seats to 103 seats is difficult to say accurately reflects the public will.

Looking at the details, it is hard to say that the People Power Party suffered a crushing defeat in the 22nd general election. However, a defeat is still a defeat. After the election, the current administration’s ability to push various policies will inevitably weaken. On the 16th, President Yoon Suk-yeol said, "We will continue to pursue the three major reforms in labor, education, and pensions, as well as medical reform, but we will pay more attention to reasonable opinions and listen carefully." Reform is difficult. It is not easy to label something as reform unless it is a significant challenge.

For example, in 2012 during the Lee Myung-bak administration, the government and medical experts formed a task force to discuss increasing medical personnel, but the doctors’ opposition prevented any conclusion. During the Moon Jae-in administration, it was announced that 4,000 doctors would be added over ten years at a rate of 400 per year. Even then, resident doctors took to the streets. Both left and right administrations, each with the presidency and a large ruling party, failed. Medical reform is relatively easier because the majority of the public supports it. The other three major reforms are necessary but more difficult. When it comes to specifics, almost everyone might oppose them.

It would be a mistake to give up on reform out of discouragement from the election results. More than 45% of the people supported the ruling party. But if there is a genuine will to reform now, as the president said, reasonable dialogue with the opposition is necessary. The image of poor communication and stubbornness that has accumulated must be shed. On the other hand, the opposition should not be satisfied with victory. The symbol of the opposition’s victory is not policy but a landslide and luxury bags. The driving force behind the opposition’s victory can be summed up as a judgment on the administration. The opposition must also think more about policy and reform and engage in dialogue with the current administration.