US War Research Institute: "Russia Preparing for Large-Scale Conventional Clash with NATO"

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia [Image source=Yonhap News]

There is an analysis suggesting that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional military conflict against NATO countries.

In a report released on the 20th, the U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated, "Various financial, economic, and military indicators of Russia suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict against NATO," adding, "(Such a large-scale conflict) is not imminent, but it is more likely to occur sooner than some Western analysts initially predicted."

According to ISW, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu mentioned at a Ministry of Defense meeting on the 20th that the ongoing military reform plan includes completing the formation of the 'Dnipro River Detachment (small fleet)' composed of small warships.

The 'Dnipro River Detachment' is the name of a Russian special forces unit active during the 18th century and World War II. Minister Shoigu also announced the creation of army corps and rifle divisions to strengthen the military's conventional capabilities, with plans to form two combined arms armies, 14 divisions, and 16 brigades by the end of this year.

ISW interpreted this by stating, "The Russian military currently lacks sufficient personnel," and "These reforms likely do not aim to immediately create new organizations and deploy troops at the unit level, but rather to build long-term military capabilities in response to NATO."

Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Defense appears to have begun addressing logistical issues from a long-term perspective, as evidenced by the recent appointment of Lieutenant General Andrey Buliga as Deputy Minister in charge of logistics.

Ukraine claims that if Russia succeeds in this war, it will expand military actions to other countries and is appealing for support. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on the 19th, "If Russia succeeds in destroying Ukraine, there is no doubt it will attack other countries in Europe and Central Asia."