[General Election Decisive Battle] ③ 'Big Match' Suwon Belt... Retake or Defend?

Democrats Have Controlled All 5 Seats Since the 20th General Election
Suwon City Administration Faces Professor-Origin Showdown... Support Rates Neck and Neck
Conservative-Strong Suwon City Byeong Features Proxy Battle Between Han and Lee
Half of Candidates Are Alumni of Suseong High School in Unique 'Alumni Showdown'

The matchups for the 'Suwon Belt,' considered one of the fiercest battlegrounds in the Seoul metropolitan area, have been finalized. Since the Democratic Party of Korea currently controls all five constituencies, the People Power Party must reclaim these areas. A notable point of interest is the face-off between high school alumni.

The 'Suwon Belt' is regarded as a barometer that will determine the political landscape of Gyeonggi Province. Suwon is a special city with a population nearing 1.2 million, making it the largest basic local government unit in the country. It is often called the 'political number one district' in Gyeonggi Province. It hosts major public institutions including the provincial government office and the Samsung Electronics headquarters, making it a key link in the 'semiconductor belt' that covers the southern Gyeonggi region.

Looking at the results of the 20th presidential election, which can gauge recent voter sentiment, Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, received 356,927 votes (48.09%), while Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party received 385,312 votes (51.91%). However, considering the nationwide vote count was a close race within a 1% margin, the Democratic Party’s 4% lead in the Suwon Belt suggests that voter sentiment here leans more toward the Democratic Party compared to other regions.

Since the Democratic Party has held all five seats since the 20th general election, the People Power Party sees reclaiming these constituencies as essential. On the 7th, Han Dong-hoon, the emergency committee chairman, toured Suwon and appealed, saying, "What has the Democratic Party’s legislative power done for Suwon so far?" and "We have the ability and a strong desire to deliver what you want." The matchups are set. The candidates, in order of ruling and opposition parties, are Kim Hyun-jun and Kim Seung-won (Suwon-si Gap), Hong Yoon-oh and Baek Hye-ryun (Suwon-si Eul), Bang Moon-gyu and Kim Young-jin (Suwon-si Byeong), Lee Soo-jung and Kim Jun-hyeok (Suwon-si Jeong), and Park Jae-soon and Yeom Tae-young (Suwon-si Mu).

'Profiler' Lee Soo-jung vs. 'Jeongjo Leadership' Kim Jun-hyeok

On the afternoon of the 14th, candidates from the Democratic Party of Korea for the 22nd National Assembly election in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, posed together before a joint announcement of their shared pledges at the Gyeonggi Provincial Assembly in Suwon. From left to right: Kim Seung-won (Gap), Baek Hye-ryun (Eul), Kim Young-jin (Byeong), Kim Jun-hyeok (Jeong), Yeom Tae-young (Mu).
[Image source=Yonhap News]

Suwon-si Jeong is emerging as the biggest battleground within the 'Suwon Belt.' With incumbent Park Kwang-on, a former floor leader of the Democratic Party, eliminated in the primary, a 'professor showdown' between candidates Lee Soo-jung and Kim Jun-hyeok has been set. Lee Soo-jung, a professor at Kyonggi University known nationwide as a 'profiler' and expert in criminal psychology, faces off against Kim Jun-hyeok, a Hanshin University professor who has studied the history of Suwon and King Jeongjo’s leadership.

In Suwon-si Jeong, Kim Jin-pyo (current National Assembly Speaker) was elected in the 17th general election, and after Suwon-si Mu was split off, Park Kwang-on held three consecutive terms. Looking at the past 20 years, it is fair to say this is a Democratic Party stronghold. The presence of Gwanggyo New Town, home to many people in their 30s and 40s, also favors the progressive camp. However, a variable is that during the last presidential election, Lee Jae-myung won by only 166 votes in Yeongtong District, the smallest margin among the four administrative districts. This makes it difficult to predict the outcome of this race between political newcomers without the 'incumbent premium.'

Poll results also show a tight race. According to a Media Research survey commissioned by Gyeonggi Ilbo conducted on the 11th and 12th among 500 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Suwon-si Jeong, candidate Lee Soo-jung (40.2%) closely trails Kim Jun-hyeok (42.2%). Although Kim is ahead, considering this district is a 'Democratic Party stronghold,' the result is not reassuring. (The survey was conducted with 90% wireless ARS and 10% wired ARS, with a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

Candidate Lee Soo-jung is a nationally recognized figure in criminal psychology who has worked extensively in public, media, and broadcasting sectors, achieving various accomplishments. She has focused on child and adolescent sexual crimes and women's rights issues, contributing to the development of crime prevention systems. The People Power Party selected her as their 'first recruited talent' because these public interest achievements provide a strong rationale for her candidacy. She has also been rooted in the region for over 20 years as a professor at Kyonggi University.

Kim Jun-hyeok, running to defend the district, is a scholar who has researched the historical value of Suwon’s World Heritage Site Hwaseong Fortress and King Jeongjo. He authored 'If You Are a Leader, Be Like Jeongjo,' a book recommended by former President Moon Jae-in. Born and raised in Suwon, he gained recognition two years ago when he ran for Suwon mayor. Classified as a pro-Lee Jae-myung faction, he has received strong support from his base, and with the endorsement of Park Kwang-on, he has secured the organizational strength of a senior lawmaker.

Strong Conservative Suwon-si Byeong... People Power Party Aims to Reclaim

On the morning of the 14th, candidates from the People Power Party for the Suwon region in the 22nd National Assembly election posed before a joint announcement of their shared pledges at the Gyeonggi Provincial Council in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province. From the left: Kim Hyun-jun (Gap), Hong Yun-o (Eul), Bang Moon-gyu (Byeong), Lee Soo-jung (Jeong), Park Jae-soon (Mu). [Image source=Yonhap News]

The traditionally conservative Suwon-si Byeong constituency is also expected to be a close race. Former Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Bang Moon-gyu and 'pro-Lee Jae-myung core' Kim Young-jin are competing in the main election, making this a proxy battle between Han Dong-hoon and Lee Jae-myung. Bang, who served as a cabinet member under the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, joined early as a recruited talent, while Kim, who broke the conservative stronghold in the 20th general election, is seeking a third term. Both candidates are alumni of prominent high schools representing Suwon: Bang from Suseong High School and Kim from Yushin High School.

Suwon-si Byeong has long been a fortress for conservatives. The People Power Party aims to reclaim the district starting here. Former lawmaker Nam Pyeong-woo was re-elected during the 14th and 15th National Assembly, and his son Nam Kyung-pil served five consecutive terms from the 15th by-election to the 19th National Assembly. During the 19th by-election, Kim Yong-nam, policy committee chairman of the Reform New Party, was elected as a Saenuri Party member. In the 20th National Assembly, Kim Young-jin was the first progressive party candidate to be elected, and he was re-elected in the 21st general election with 53.07% of the vote, leading by more than 10%.

A Gallup Korea survey commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo on the 13th and 14th among 502 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Suwon-si Byeong showed Kim Young-jin (44.0%) leading Bang Moon-gyu (35.0%). Although Kim holds the 'incumbent premium,' his lead barely exceeds the margin of error, making the result uncertain. In fact, 29% of voters who currently support a candidate said they might switch their support to another candidate before the general election. (The survey was conducted entirely via wireless telephone interviews with virtual wireless numbers, with a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

'Three-term Mayor' Yeom Tae-young Enters... High School Alumni Face-off

The Suwon-si Mu constituency is also a battleground to watch, as it is an 'unoccupied territory' with no incumbent. Yeom Tae-young, who has served three terms as mayor and led the Democratic Party’s control of the 'Suwon Belt,' is running. He spearheaded Suwon’s elevation to a special city, served as a Democratic Party supreme council member, and was deputy governor of Gyeonggi Province for economic affairs. The People Power Party candidate is Park Jae-soon, a former Gyeonggi Provincial Assembly member who has built his local base for nearly three years. He aims to avenge his near 40% vote share against Kim Jin-pyo in the last general election.

Another interesting point is the 'alumni face-off,' as high school connections are stronger here than in other areas. In Suwon, Suseong High School, Suwon High School, and Yushin High School are considered the 'three major high schools.' Alumni from these schools have entered politics, public service, business, and media, creating this dynamic.

Among the 10 candidates from both parties, five are Suseong High School alumni. Notably, in Suwon-si Gap, former National Tax Service Commissioner Kim Hyun-jun (29th class) and Assemblyman Kim Seung-won (31st class) face off as senior and junior alumni. Additionally, Bang Moon-gyu (24th class) from Suwon-si Byeong, Kim Jun-hyeok (29th class) from Suwon-si Jeong, and Yeom Tae-young (22nd class) from Suwon-si Mu are also Suseong High School graduates. Assemblyman Kim Seung-won strengthened alumni support in December last year ahead of the general election, and former Future Korea Party leader Won Yu-cheol (24th class) attended Bang Moon-gyu’s book launch earlier this year to show support.