If Tomorrow Were the General Election Day... "People Power 33% · Democratic 26%" [PollPoll News]

"Will vote for Democratic Party" down 9%p in a month
"Will vote for Joguk New Party proportional representation" 13%

About a month before the 22nd general election, a public opinion poll showed that the People Power Party's approval rating is ahead of the Democratic Party beyond the margin of error. Respondents showed a positive reaction to the People Power Party's candidate nominations.

People Power Party Emergency Response Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon (right) and Democratic Party Leader Lee Jae-myung are deep in thought while attending the 105th March 1st Movement Anniversary Ceremony held at the Yu Gwan-sun Memorial Hall in Jung-gu, Seoul on the 1st. [Image source=Yonhap News]

According to a regular public opinion poll jointly commissioned by Yonhap News Agency and Yonhap News TV to the polling firm Matrix (conducted on June 2-3 with 1,000 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide using a 100% wireless telephone interview method), 33% responded that they would vote for a People Power Party candidate if the election were held tomorrow, while 26% said they would vote for a Democratic Party candidate. The gap between the two major parties is 7 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level).

The percentage of respondents who said they would vote for the People Power Party candidate remained unchanged compared to the previous survey (May 2-3). However, the percentage of those who said they would vote for the Democratic Party candidate decreased by 9 percentage points compared to the previous survey. In particular, the drop was significant among those in their 20s (from 34% to 13%), in Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong regions (from 49% to 20%), and among Democratic Party supporters (from 83% to 72%).

The difference between middle-aged and older age groups was also clear. Respondents in their 60s answered 51% for People Power Party and 23% for Democratic Party, while those in their 70s answered 61% for People Power Party and 15% for Democratic Party. On the other hand, those in their 30s, 40s, and 50s responded that they would vote for the Democratic Party candidate at rates of 26%, 46%, and 30%, respectively, showing Democratic Party dominance. The 18-29 age group showed a close race within the margin of error, with 15% for People Power Party and 13% for Democratic Party.

By region, a majority said they would vote for People Power Party candidates in Daegu and Gyeongbuk (People Power Party 51%, Democratic Party 11%), Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (People Power Party 46%, Democratic Party 19%), Daejeon, Chungcheong, and Sejong (People Power Party 39%, Democratic Party 20%), and Seoul (People Power Party 31%, Democratic Party 24%). In Gwangju and Jeolla (Democratic Party 44%, People Power Party 8%) and Gangwon and Jeju (Democratic Party 40%, People Power Party 20%), more respondents said they would vote for Democratic Party candidates. In Incheon and Gyeonggi (Democratic Party 31%, People Power Party 30%), the race was within the margin of error.

Regarding party support regardless of affiliation, when asked "Which party is doing better in candidate nominations?" 34% said People Power Party, and 23% said Democratic Party.

The percentage of respondents who said they would vote for new party candidates was 3% for the Jo Guk New Party (tentative name), 2% for the Reform New Party, and 1% each for New Future and Green Justice Party. With the emergence of the Jo Guk New Party, the Reform New Party and Green Justice Party decreased by 2 percentage points and 1 percentage point, respectively, compared to the previous survey. New Future remained unchanged.

In the proportional representation party vote intention survey, the People Power Party satellite party, People’s Future, recorded 28%, while the progressive camp satellite party including the Democratic Party, the Democratic Reform Progressive Union (tentative name), recorded 14%. The Jo Guk New Party’s proportional representation vote intention was 13%, showing a gap within the margin of error with the Democratic Party. The Reform New Party had 3%, New Future 2%, and Green Justice Party 1%. Other parties accounted for 1%, and 6% said they had no party preference. The percentage of those with no party preference increased by 1 percentage point compared to the previous survey.

For more details, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.