North Korea also scraps inter-Korean cooperation bill... Will it proceed with the 7th nuclear test?

'Intent to Sever Relations Ahead of Provocation' Analysis
Possibility of Nuclear Test... Vehicle Activity at Punggye-ri

The Korean Central News Agency reported on the 8th that North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un conducted on-site guidance at local industrial factories in Kimhwa County on the 7th.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

There are observations that North Korea is cutting ties with inter-Korean economic cooperation and preparing for full-scale provocations. It appears to be igniting large-scale military provocations. At the end of last year, North Korea defined inter-Korean relations as "relations between two countries at war" at the plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party. Since then, it has abolished organizations responsible for exchanges and cooperation between the inter-Korean authorities and civilians, leading to expectations that related laws will soon be repealed.

North Korea has put this into action. On the 8th, North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency reported that the 30th plenary meeting of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly Standing Committee was held the previous day at the Mansudae Assembly Hall. At this meeting, the repeal of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Act, the Mount Kumgang International Tourism Special Zone Act and its enforcement regulations, and agreements related to inter-Korean economic cooperation were proposed and adopted. This means that both the justification and procedures for inter-Korean exchanges have disappeared.

Experts on North Korea view this as an attempt by North Korea to sever all links with South Korea before provocations. Additionally, with Russia supporting North Korea's military provocations, there is analysis that North Korea may engage in large-scale provocations. A seventh nuclear test has even been forecasted. On the 7th, Alexander Matsegora, the Russian ambassador to North Korea, stated in an interview with Russia's TASS news agency that North Korea may conduct an additional nuclear test. He said, "If the US Air Force's strategic bombers continue to fly over the Korean Peninsula, North Korea may decide on a new nuclear test," adding, "The responsibility lies entirely with the United States and South Korea."

North Korea's movements are also notable. Vehicle activity was detected around the nuclear test site in Punggye-ri, Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province. The US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) North Korea specialist media Beyond Parallel analyzed satellite images from the 16th of last month and reported that personnel and vehicle movements were detected in the administrative support area of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site.

Beyond Parallel speculated that the recent activities detected at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site were for the maintenance and repair of Tunnel No. 3, whose entrance was blown up to close the site in 2018. Such levels of activity had not been observed in the past year. However, no traces of snow removal or human movement were found on the road leading to Tunnels No. 2 and 4, whose entrances had collapsed. Tunnel No. 1 was also abandoned immediately after being used for North Korea's first nuclear test in October 2006, and no activity has been detected there to date.

On the afternoon of the 2nd, citizens at Seoul Station are watching news related to North Korea's cruise missile launch. [Image source=Yonhap News]

If North Korea conducts a seventh nuclear test, it is expected to be timed with the South Korea-US joint military exercises, South Korea's general election, and the US presidential election. The US and South Korea have already finalized the schedule for the Freedom Shield (FS) joint exercises. The training will take place over 11 days from the 4th to the 14th of next month. Numerous outdoor field exercises will also be conducted. The FS joint exercises plan to conduct division-level joint amphibious landings and over 20 South Korea-US joint outdoor maneuver exercises at the level of the past Foal Eagle (FE) exercises.

The US has also accelerated its movements. On the 6th, a US Air Force RC-135U (Combat Sent) reconnaissance aircraft conducted a long-duration reconnaissance flight over the West Sea. The aircraft took off from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, and flew for an extended period over the distant waters near Incheon in the West Sea. The RC-135U, of which the US Air Force only has two, is equipped with high-performance advanced sensors that collect strategic information such as signal intelligence hundreds of kilometers away and electronic waves emitted from missile bases. The long-duration flight of this reconnaissance aircraft over the West Sea has led to speculation that it detected signs of additional North Korean provocations.

A government official said, "As North Korea is expected to carry out various provocations around the joint exercises, South Korea and the US are using intelligence assets to look for signs."