Emergency Committee Chair Han Dong-hoon, the 'Condition' to Become the Savior of the People Power Party [General Election Compass]

Handonghun Closely Chases Lee Jaemyung in Next Presidential Approval Ratings
Party Support Remains Low Compared to Personal Popularity
Kim Gunhee Risk Symbolic but Requires Solution

# On the 15th at Gyeongdong Market in Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, when Han Dong-hoon, the Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, visited, a huge crowd gathered, making it difficult to take a single step forward. Shouts of "Han Dong-hoon, next president" were heard everywhere. It was enough to make one mistake the period for the presidential election instead of the general election. Being pushed by the crowd, it was not easy to keep up.

Chairman Han has emerged as a 'rising star.' Even during his tenure as Minister of Justice, he consistently ranked first among the ruling party's potential presidential candidates, but after entering politics, he has leveled up even further.

According to Gallup's regular public opinion survey conducted from the 30th of last month to the 1st of this month (targeting 1,000 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, via telephone interviewer method), Chairman Han received 23% in the 'next leader preference survey' asking about future presidential prospects. While he also ranked first within the ruling party during his time as Minister of Justice, his support was in the 10% range. Chairman Han ranks second in the next presidential race behind Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea (26%), but considering he has only been in politics for just over a month, this is undoubtedly an encouraging result.

On the 5th, four days before the Lunar New Year holiday, Han Dong-hoon, Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, visited Cheongnyangni Fruit and Vegetable Market and Gyeongdong Market in Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, greeting citizens. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Earlier, in the fourth week of January Gallup survey (conducted from the 16th to 18th of last month, targeting 1,001 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, via telephone interviewer method), Chairman Han received 52% support as party leader. This matches the 52% approval rating of former President Park Geun-hye during her time as Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the Saenuri Party (survey conducted March 19-23, 2012), which led to her miraculous election victory.

While Chairman Han's personal approval rating is trending upward, the People Power Party's support remains flat. There is little difference in the party's support rate before and after Chairman Han's rise. According to Gallup's regular surveys, the People Power Party's support hovered between 34% and 36% in December and January. Similarly, Realmeter's regular surveys show the party's support at 38.1% (fourth week of December last year), fluctuating between 36.6% and 39.8%. This indicates that Chairman Han's support base has not yet fully transferred to the party.

For now, the political sphere is focusing on how Chairman Han's emergence has changed the election dynamics. The opposition camp had planned to fight the election on a 'judgment' against President Yoon Seok-youl, whose approval ratings have been low. However, Chairman Han's appearance has complicated the election landscape. Notably, the sentiment of centrist and non-affiliated voters is attracting attention. Beyond consolidating the base, these swing voters are showing favorable views toward Chairman Han. Yoon Hee-yung, head of the Opinion Live Public Opinion Analysis Center, said on MBC Radio, "In the fourth week of January Gallup survey, positive views among centrists and non-affiliated voters have shifted and expanded into support," adding, "While positive evaluations of the president and party are in the 20% range, Chairman Han has positive ratings in the mid-40% range, which could lead to an increase in party support." In other words, he has the 'ingredients' to shake up the political scene.

Within political circles, there are also calls for a 'killer content' to boost the party's support through Chairman Han. Criticisms of Mega Seoul or the 86 activist generation have their limits. Former People Power Party lawmaker Shin Ji-ho said in a KBS radio interview, "Killer content is needed," suggesting, "There should be pledges such as relocating the National Assembly entirely to Chungcheong Province and transforming the current National Assembly site into an attractive space for metropolitan citizens."

On the 5th, four days before the Lunar New Year holiday, Han Dong-hoon, Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, visited Cheongnyangni Fruit and Vegetable Market and Gyeongdong Market in Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, greeting citizens while holding the products he purchased. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

However, experts point out that something beyond this is necessary. They believe that resolving the relationship issue with President Yoon is key to setting the direction for approval ratings. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University's Department of Political Science said, "It will be important what level of remarks President Yoon makes in the interview airing on the 7th," adding, "If a higher-than-expected level of apology regarding First Lady Kim Keon-hee is made, Chairman Han's approval rating will rise, and the gap between him and the People Power Party will narrow, improving the situation."

Kim Bong-shin, director of Metavoice, shared a similar view. Kim said, "The biggest obstacle to increasing People Power Party support is the negative evaluation of President Yoon, mainly related to First Lady Kim Keon-hee," and criticized, "Chairman Han's image politics and presence alone have clear limits in raising approval ratings." Kim added, "While conservative voters may like Chairman Han's criticism of the activist generation or Lee Jae-myung, it is difficult to gain favor among centrists. The key is to find a clue in showing some symbolic resolution regarding the First Lady."

(For detailed information on the polls mentioned in the article, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)