Early Start of South Korea-US Defense Cost-Sharing Talks...Reducing the 'Trump Risk'?

Conflict Over Defense Costs During Trump Administration
Intention to Conclude Negotiations Before November US Election

Former President Donald Trump, who is leading among the Republican candidates for the U.S. presidential election, is seen clenching his fist while giving a speech at an event hosted by Fox News Channel in Des Moines, Iowa, on the 10th (local time).
[Image source=Yonhap News]

South Korea and the United States are reportedly set to begin early negotiations for the 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) on defense cost-sharing, which will take effect from 2026. This is interpreted as an intention to complete the negotiations before the U.S. presidential election in November.

According to diplomatic sources on the 16th, South Korea and the U.S. have reached a consensus to start negotiations for the 12th SMA within this year.

Im Soo-seok, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, explained at a regular briefing that "the 11th Special Measures Agreement between South Korea and the U.S. will expire at the end of 2025," and added, "Our government plans to prepare for the next negotiations systematically and strategically while closely consulting with the U.S."

The 11th SMA, covering the six-year period from 2020 to 2025, was concluded in 2021. Although it is customary to begin negotiations for the next agreement early next year, this time negotiations have started unusually early, with nearly two years remaining before the expiration date.

This has led to analysis that it may be in consideration of the possibility of former President Donald Trump winning the upcoming November election. If Trump returns to power, conflicts over the defense cost-sharing between South Korea and the U.S. could intensify.

During the 11th SMA negotiations under the Trump administration, former President Trump pressured South Korea for a significant increase in the cost-sharing amount. Despite negotiations lasting over a year and a half, Trump did not approve the agreement, and it was only finalized after the Biden administration took office.

If the SMA agreement is finalized before the U.S. presidential election, it is expected that conflicts over defense cost-sharing between South Korea and the U.S. will be minimized even if former President Trump succeeds in returning to power. However, it remains uncertain whether the 12th SMA can be concluded within this year.