Newborns in China Halved... 1.87 Million Teachers to Lose Jobs in 10 Years

Excess Supply of 1.87 Million Teachers by 2035
Number of Newborns Nearly Halved Compared to 2016

In China, where low birth rates have become as entrenched as in Korea, concerns about an 'oversupply of teachers' are growing. It is predicted that in 10 years, 1.87 million elementary and middle school teachers will lose their jobs.

On the 5th, local Chinese media including Hongseong Newspaper reported on a population estimation simulation conducted by the research team led by Associate Professor Chao Jinzhong from the Institute of Higher Education at Beijing Normal University.

The study predicted that by 2035, a total of 1.5 million elementary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers in China will find it difficult to secure employment.

Chinese elementary school students. [Image source=Yonhap News]

The research team warned, "The number of elementary and middle school students subject to compulsory education peaked at 146 million in 2024 and will rapidly decline thereafter." As the number of students decreases, schools will naturally consolidate or close, leading to a reduction in teaching jobs.

The team pointed out, "The decline in students will inevitably affect the survival of kindergartens and elementary schools, and the employment difficulties for graduates of related departments will inevitably intensify."

Chinese education authorities have already begun adjusting teacher supply and demand. Last year alone, the Ministry of Education of China rejected plans to establish education departments at 112 universities nationwide. The rejection rate for new education departments in China was 45% last year, up 12 percentage points from 33% the previous year.

Local governments are also guiding young talent away from education, humanities, and arts toward advanced industries or manufacturing. In Sichuan Province, for example, in July last year, they announced encouragement for establishing majors in advanced industries such as artificial intelligence, while controlling the establishment of education and arts departments.

Meanwhile, the number of newborns in China peaked at 18.83 million in 2016. Since then, it has decreased by an average of 1.5 million annually, dropping to 9.56 million in 2022, nearly halving. This is the first time since 1949 that the annual number of newborns in China has fallen below 10 million.