South Korea's Population to Decline to 36 Million in 50 Years... Down to 1977 Levels

It is projected that the population of the Republic of Korea will gradually decrease starting this year, reaching around 36 million by 2072, 50 years from now.

According to the 'Future Population Projections (2022~2072)' released by Statistics Korea on the 14th, the total population of Korea is expected to decline from 51.67 million in 2022 to 51.31 million in 2030, and further down to 36.22 million by 2072. This figure is similar to the population size in 1977. The projection scenario combines median assumptions for population change factors such as fertility rate, life expectancy, and net international migration.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The population growth rate is expected to maintain an average annual rate of -0.16% for 10 years after 2025, then accelerate its decline, reaching approximately -1.31% by 2072. Statistics Korea views the population, which peaked at 51.84 million in 2020, as continuously decreasing thereafter.

The scale of 'natural population decrease,' calculated as the number of births minus the number of deaths, is projected to grow from -110,000 in 2022 to -270,000 in 2040, and -530,000 by 2072.

As of 2022, the working-age population (ages 15-64) accounted for 71.1% (36.74 million) of the total population, the elderly population (65 and older) was 17.4% (8.98 million), and the youth population (ages 0-14) was 11.5% (5.95 million). By 2072, the working-age population is expected to be 45.8%, the elderly population 47.7%, and the youth population 6.6%.

Notably, the elderly population is projected to surpass the working-age population during this period. The elderly population, which was 8.98 million (17.4% of the total population) in 2022, is expected to increase to 1.4 times that number (12.98 million) by 2030 and 1.9 times (17.27 million) by 2072.

The youth population is expected to decrease from 5.95 million (11.5% of the total population) in 2022 to 2.38 million by 2072, which is about 40.0% of the 2022 level. Accordingly, the school-age population (ages 6-21) is also estimated to decline by 3.37 million by 2040 from 7.5 million in 2022, reaching approximately 2.78 million by 2072.

The young adult population (ages 19-34) is projected to decrease from 10.61 million in 2022 by 3.39 million by 2040, falling to around 4.5 million by 2072. The median age is expected to rise from 44.9 years in 2022 to over 50 years by 2031, and further increase to 63.4 years by 2072.

As the working-age population shrinks, the number of dependents per 100 working-age people is expected to exceed 100 by 2058, rising sharply to 119 by 2072. The youth dependency ratio is projected to decrease from 16.2 in 2022 to 11.5 by 2033 due to the faster decline in the youth population, then increase again to about 14.3 by 2072.

The elderly dependency ratio is expected to increase 4.3 times from 24.4 in 2022 to over 50 by 2036, reaching approximately 104.2 by 2072 due to the rapid growth of the elderly population.

The current population pyramid in 2022, shaped like a thick jar with a large number of people in their 30s to 50s, is expected to transform into an inverted triangle structure with a progressively larger elderly population aged 60 and above.