Expert: "Achieving Suppression Goals Is Virtually Impossible"
An analysis has emerged suggesting that the temperature limits set by countries around the world to combat global warming may be breached sooner than expected. It is forecasted that the global average temperature could rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time next year.
The UK Met Office announced on the 8th (local time) in its global temperature outlook that "following this year, next year will also be the hottest year on record," estimating that "the rise in global temperature compared to the pre-industrial period (1850?1900) will be between 1.34 and 1.58 degrees Celsius next year, with a central estimate of 1.46 degrees."
Dr. Nick Dunstone of the UK Met Office, who led the analysis, stated, "It is expected that global temperatures will break records for two consecutive years this year and next, and there is a reasonable prediction that the rise will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees for the first time next year."
The 1.5-degree rise in global temperature is considered a kind of 'maginot line' in climate change by scientists. Based on this, the international community set a goal through the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit the rise in global average temperature to within 2 degrees, and ideally below 1.5 degrees, compared to pre-industrial levels by 2100.
However, experts view the goal of keeping the temperature rise below 1.5 degrees as practically unattainable wishful thinking. Recent studies have shown that the point at which the temperature rise exceeds 1.5 degrees is gradually being brought forward due to accelerating climate change in recent years. On the 17th of last month, the global temperature temporarily exceeded 2.06 degrees above the pre-industrial average for the first time on record.
Professor Gabriel Vecchi of Princeton University in the United States warned about this summer's record-breaking heatwave, saying, "It is a short-term temperature rise caused by an abnormal combination of several warming factors," but also cautioned, "Humanity has increased greenhouse gases over the past 150 years, which greatly increases the likelihood of pushing us into an unknown territory beyond the record."
The hottest year on record so far was 2016. However, the WMO predicted that "there is a 98% chance this record will be broken within five years." This observation was made without certainty about whether an El Ni?o event would occur this year, but with the actual occurrence of El Ni?o this year, it appears that abnormal high-temperature phenomena have arrived rapidly.
El Ni?o refers to the phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the monitoring area of the equatorial eastern Pacific rise by more than 0.5 degrees and persist for over five months. According to the WMO, as of the 6th, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific have risen about 3 to 4 degrees above normal.
Dr. Dunstone said, "Temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees does not mean a violation of the Paris Agreement, and it is important to recognize this," but added, "However, the first year that exceeds 1.5 degrees will certainly be a milestone in climate history."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
