[General Election Battleground]⑥ Tough or Favorable... 'Political No.1 District' Jongno, Fierce Contest Between Ruling and Opposition Parties

Incumbent Ruling Party Lawmaker Choi Jae-hyung Faces Challenge from Ha Tae-kyung
Minister Han Dong-hoon Also Speculated... "Why an Internal Conflict in Jongno?"
Opposition Rumors of Heavyweight Nominations Including Im Jong-seok and Lee Kwang-jae

"I don't dislike that person, but if they said they would go to a tough district, they should go to a tough district. Why come to a warm district?"

On the 29th of last month, Kim (71), a self-employed person met in Sajik-dong, Jongno, said this about Ha Tae-kyung, the People Power Party candidate who recently declared his candidacy for the Seoul Jongno District general election. There was a clear atmosphere of dissatisfaction with Ha, who declared his first run in a tough district within the ruling party, actually running in Jongno, a stronghold of the People Power Party. Having lived in Jongno for over 60 years, he said that if Ha is nominated as the People Power Party candidate, he would 'vote for him,' but expressed regret, saying, "Why Jongno of all places? It's not that I dislike Ha Tae-kyung, but he should face Jeong Cheong-rae of the Democratic Party, so why come this way?"

Jongno-gu, known as the "number one political district in South Korea," is already seeing rumors of candidacies from heavyweight politicians more than four months ahead of next year's general election. Jongno is a district that has produced former presidents including Lee Myung-bak and Roh Moo-hyun, as well as prime ministers. In the 21st general election, there was even a "party leader big match" between Lee Nak-yeon, former leader of the Democratic Party, and Hwang Kyo-ahn, then leader of the United Future Party.

The current incumbent of Jongno-gu is Choi Jae-hyung, a People Power Party lawmaker who ran for president, and he is seeking re-election in next year's general election. Meanwhile, Ha, who served three terms in Busan Haeundae, has officially declared his candidacy for Jongno, and with Han Dong-hoon, Minister of Justice and a key figure in the ruling party, also rumored to run, the race is already attracting intense attention. In the opposition, lawyer Kwak Sang-eon, son-in-law of former President Roh Moo-hyun, has been cultivating the voter base as the local party chairman, and the candidacies of Lee Kwang-jae, Secretary General of the National Assembly and a close aide of former President Roh, and Im Jong-seok, former Chief of Staff to President Moon Jae-in, have also been mentioned, turning the district into a battleground for heavyweight politicians from both parties.

Divided East and West... Same Jongno, Different Voter Sentiments

Jongno-gu is considered a district where the voter base is divided along east and west lines. The eastern areas such as Changsin-dong and Sungin-dong have many residents from Honam and are classified as strongholds of the Democratic Party. On the other hand, the affluent western areas like Sajik-dong and Pyeongchang-dong are regarded as voter bases for the People Power Party. In the 21st general election, Lee Nak-yeon, who won, was only defeated by Hwang Kyo-ahn, then United Future Party candidate, in Pyeongchang-dong and Sajik-dong.

In fact, voter sentiments in Changsin-dong and Sajik-dong were subtly different. Lee (83), met near the Changsin-dong alley market, said, "I will vote for the Democratic Party no matter what," adding, "Last time, I voted for Kim Young-jong, who ran as an independent." In last year's by-election, the Democratic Party did not nominate a candidate, taking responsibility for the election cause. As a result, Kim, who served as Jongno District Mayor, left the Democratic Party and ran as an independent.

Yang (72), who runs a general store inside the market, said, "Choi Jae-hyung was seen a lot even during the last holiday (at the market). If he runs again, I am thinking of voting for him," but added, "But not everyone in the market is like me. There are many people from Honam here."

On the other hand, Sajik-dong showed a high preference for the ruling party. Kim (75), who runs a retail store, said, "All the ajummas here are People Power Party supporters." Regarding the rumors of Ha and Minister Han running, he showed mixed reactions. He said, "(Regarding Ha's candidacy) It seems the neighborhood people don't like it much. He is capable, but he should face those bad people in the Democratic Party," and added, "(Minister Han) He is good. He's smart."

Recent Election Sentiments Favor 'People Power Party'... The Situation Remains Uncertain

In recent elections, voter sentiment in Jongno has generally leaned toward the People Power Party. In the March by-election last year, Choi won easily with 52.1% of the vote (49,637 votes), defeating Kim Young-jong, who ran as an independent after leaving the Democratic Party, who received 28.4% (27,078 votes).

In the same year’s 8th local elections, People Power Party candidate Jeong Moon-heon was elected Jongno District Mayor with 51.5% (35,925 votes). Democratic Party candidate Yoo Chan-jong lost with 47.1%, marking the first time in 16 years since 2006 that the People Power Party took control of Jongno in local elections.

However, it is too early to be complacent about next year's general election voter sentiment. Former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun was re-elected in the 19th and 20th general elections, and in the 21st general election, former leader Lee Nak-yeon was elected, producing opposition party lawmakers three times in a row. The fact that incumbent Choi was elected in the by-election is also partly attributed to the special situation where the Democratic Party did not nominate a candidate. If the Democratic Party nominates a heavyweight figure as the Jongno candidate, the election dynamics could change.

Heavyweight Candidates in the Rumor Mill... Who Will Run?

Currently, in Jongno-gu, with incumbent Choi defending his seat, Ha has thrown down the gauntlet, and the pre-election nomination battle is heating up ahead of next year's general election. On the 29th of last month, on MBC Radio, Choi targeted Ha, saying, "The true meaning of running in a tough district is to go to a place where no one wants to go with a spirit of sacrifice. I question whether it can be called running in a tough district when there is an incumbent and everyone wants to run there." In response, Ha retorted, "When rumors about Won Hee-ryong and Han Dong-hoon running came out, those were tough districts, but when Ha Tae-kyung runs, is it not a tough district?"

In fact, rumors of Minister Han running in Jongno have been circulating continuously in political circles. As a close aide to President Yoon Suk-yeol and with high public recognition, it is said that he should run in the symbolically political Jongno district to help rally support for the general election. Minister Han has recently been visiting major cities nationwide to meet voters, which political circles interpret as pre-election warm-up activities.

In the opposition, lawyer Kwak Sang-eon, the local party chairman, is the first to be mentioned as a candidate for Jongno. Kwak has been active emphasizing that "Roh Moo-hyun's politics is coming back," displaying banners around Jongno, and leveraging his status as the son-in-law of former President Roh, who was elected in Jongno in the 15th general election. He expressed confidence, saying, "Since mid-year, I have felt the atmosphere has been improving significantly."

However, heavyweight Democratic Party figures are also preparing to run in Jongno, suggesting fierce competition. Former floor leader Lee Jong-gul recently opened a law office in Jongno-gu and has begun local activities. Secretary General Lee Kwang-jae is also expected to run in next year's general election, with speculation that he will run in Jongno, where he currently resides. Former Chief of Staff to President Moon Jae-in, Im Jong-seok, has long been rumored to run in Jongno. In an MBC radio interview on the 30th of last month, he said, "I have firmly decided to run in the general election," adding, "I am thinking about Seoul, not Honam."

In the opposition, a third-party variable is also a wild card. Bae Bok-joo, Justice Party Jongno District Chairperson, received 15.3% of the vote in last year's by-election. This was a remarkable achievement, surpassing the 15% threshold required for full election expense reimbursement as a minor party. Bae said, "I have not yet decided whether to run in the general election. It has become a very hot region," adding, "I will make a decision after December, considering the party's internal situation."