[Politics X-File] Why Has the 200 Seats in the National Assembly Become a Taboo?

(43) General Election Psychological Game, Variables That Will Decide the Outcome
Even If the Situation Is Favorable, Premature Predictions of a Landslide Victory Can Backfire
Park Ji-won: "Golf and Elections Are Lost When You Look Up"

Editor's Note"Political X-Files" is a series project that delivers the "unprecedented stories" recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

"You lose in golf and elections if you lift your head."

Former National Intelligence Service Director Park Ji-won issued a warning message regarding the opposition's emerging claim of "200 seats in the general election." The golf reference is a usual principle of former Director Park. He says that if you lift your head to see the direction the ball is going during a golf swing, you often fail to hit it properly and suffer a setback.

The better choice is to watch the ball until the very end and confirm whether the impact was properly made before lifting your head, which increases the chance of a solid hit. Professional players swing while watching the ball until the end, but most amateur players lift their heads too early, increasing the risk of inaccurate shots.

The lesson from golf is also applied to elections. Former Director Park often says that if you prematurely lift your head before the results come out, you may invite a backlash. The claim of 200 seats in the general election has been spreading after the Democratic Party of Korea won the Seoul Gangseo-gu mayoral by-election by a larger-than-expected margin.

Former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk and former Minister of Unification Chung Dong-young also mentioned 200 seats. Although it was a hopeful claim, the political world’s attention heated up after the mention of 200 seats. The criticism was about the recklessness of mentioning the taboo word "200 seats" in elections.

Korean golf men's national team member Im Sung-jae is teeing off in the 4th round of the men's golf event at the 2022 Hangzhou Asian Games held at West Lake International Golf Course in Hangzhou, China, on the 1st.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Du-kwan directly criticized, "There are crazy people who talk about a landslide victory of 200 seats even though a crisis is approaching."

Kim Du-kwan’s criticism was less about targeting a specific person and more about sending a warning to the Democratic Party as a whole. On one side, optimism about the general election is spreading, while on the other, there are concerns that this could lead to serious trouble. This relates to the long-standing "taboo" in the political world surrounding the 200-seat mark for lawmakers.

The issue of securing 200 seats has attracted attention whenever a landslide victory for a particular party was anticipated. A representative case was the 17th general election in 2004. Before that election, some polls suggested that the Uri Party could easily surpass 200 seats.

Not only in the metropolitan area but also in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, a strong backlash from the impeachment wave swept through, creating a strong momentum for the Uri Party. However, political experts emphasized caution, saying that the poll results and the actual election outcomes would differ.

At that time, the Grand National Party pleaded with its traditional support base, especially in the Yeongnam region, warning that they might lose more than 200 seats. They knelt and appealed, saying, "We were wrong, so please give us one more chance." This so-called pleading strategy somewhat worked.

On October 11, the day of the by-election for the Mayor of Gangseo-gu, Seoul, voters are casting their ballots at the 9th polling station in Banghwa 1-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

The actual election results ended with the Uri Party winning 152 seats and the Grand National Party 121 seats. The Grand National Party performed better than expected, while the Uri Party left somewhat disappointing results.

In the 18th general election in 2008, the situation was reversed, with the Grand National Party and the broader conservative camp expected to exceed 200 seats. The election was held shortly after the presidential election, and at that time, the United Democratic Party was still recovering from the shock of a presidential defeat.

However, the Grand National Party experienced a nomination scandal, which changed the situation. Ultimately, the Grand National Party had to be satisfied with 153 seats. Although they succeeded in regaining the position as the largest party in the National Assembly, the election results were lower than initially expected.

The reason the political world treats 200 seats as a taboo word is that it gives voters a negative impression, as if the election results are predetermined before the election is even held. This can be seen as an arrogant attitude and is a negative factor in elections.

Therefore, the side with an unfavorable election trend sometimes uses this in reverse. Even though achieving 200 seats is unlikely, they exaggerate the situation to rally their supporters.

What will happen in the 22nd general election scheduled for April 10 next year?

Parliamentarian Badge Changed to Hangul

Polls show the Democratic Party slightly ahead (ARS polls) or similar support to the People Power Party (telephone interview polls). Nevertheless, some in both the opposition and ruling parties believe the ruling party will face a tough election.

When asked which party will become the largest party or which party they will support in the general election, polls show the People Power Party struggling. So, is securing 200 seats possible? The general consensus is that it is more of a wishful hope of politicians.

For the opposition to secure 200 seats, they must achieve overwhelming victories in the metropolitan area, Honam, and Chungcheong regions, and also overcome two huge mountains. One is revising the current election system in a way favorable to the Democratic Party. The other is producing unprecedented strong results in the Yeongnam region, where the general election has been weak.

This means securing about one-third of the 65 Yeongnam constituencies, including Busan, Daegu, Ulsan, Gyeongbuk, and Gyeongnam. Considering the difficulty for the Democratic Party to secure seats in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, the scenario requires winning half of the seats in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam.

While politicians may mention 200 seats, making it a reality is another matter. It is an almost impossible challenge.

The rules of the game for the April general election next year have not yet been finalized. The election landscape that will determine how the ruling and opposition parties contest the election is also not yet formed. There are many variables that could influence the election flow. The five months remaining until next year’s general election is enough time for many changes to occur.