[Politics That Day] Is Seoul's Early Voting Rate of 20% a Variable?... An Interesting Hong Jun-pyo Scenario

The Most Recent Seoul By-election April 2021
Seoul Mayoral Race: Oh Se-hoon vs Park Young-sun Showdown
High Early Voting Rate, Both Ruling and Opposition Parties 'Hopeful Circuits'

Editor's Note‘On That Day in Politics’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

A useful reference to gauge the flow of the October 11 by-election for the Mayor of Gangseo District in Seoul is the April 7, 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election. It was the most recent Seoul by-election held separately, not alongside the presidential or nationwide local elections.

There is a difference in political stature and symbolism between the Seoul mayoral by-election and the Gangseo District mayoral by-election. In fact, the April 2021 by-election was perceived as a prelude to the presidential election, which is why both ruling and opposition parties had to engage in an all-out battle.

Although not on the same level as the Seoul mayoral by-election, the political symbolism of the Gangseo District mayoral by-election is also significant. The political circles in Yeouido view it as a preliminary test to gauge Seoul voters’ sentiment ahead of the 22nd general election scheduled for April 10 next year.

The political shockwaves that the ruling and opposition parties will experience depending on the election results are considerable. Hong Joon-pyo, Mayor of Daegu Metropolitan City, assessed, “This is not a simple by-election but an important battle to preview the metropolitan area’s general election forecast next year,” adding, “The camp that loses in the Gangseo District mayoral by-election will face a megaton-level shock.”

On October 26, 2021, Hong Joon-pyo, the People Power Party presidential primary candidate, and Lee Jun-seok, the party leader, visited Seoul National Cemetery in Dongjak-gu, Seoul, and are seen talking after paying respects at the tomb of former President Park Chung-hee. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

Mayor Hong’s analysis, based on his extensive political experience, is worth careful consideration by both parties. The ruling party could have minimized the election’s significance but chose to confront it head-on by nominating former Mayor Kim Tae-woo.

Winning the election could yield political gains, but losing would inevitably increase political burdens. Both parties see voter turnout as a crucial variable, with early voting turnout being the focal point.

This by-election on October 11 is held during the Chuseok holiday and the Hangul Day holiday. Both parties officially acknowledge that the time available for election campaigning is shorter than expected. In this context, early voting on October 6 and 7, from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. each day, is expected to be a decisive factor influencing the election’s flow.

Historically, by-elections have typically seen low turnout rates around 20%. The contest was often a ‘home base vs. home base’ battle between the ruling and opposition parties. However, the introduction of early voting has changed the situation.

Early voting on Friday and Saturday offsets the characteristic of by-elections held on weekdays. Those who work found it difficult to vote on weekdays, but with early voting, anyone willing can cast their vote on Friday afternoon or Saturday.

This is why both parties are putting considerable effort into encouraging their supporters to participate in early voting.

On the 21st, the first day of candidate registration for the by-election of the Gangseo District Mayor in Seoul, scheduled for the 11th of next month, Jin Gyo-hoon, the candidate from the Democratic Party, and Kim Tae-woo, the candidate from the People Power Party, shook hands at the Gangseo District Election Commission in Seoul. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Mayor Hong predicted, “If early voting in the Gangseo District mayoral election reaches the 20% range, it will favor the opposition, but if turnout is low, the ruling party will have hope.”

An early voting rate of 20% implies a significantly high overall turnout. It indicates a heated election atmosphere, which is advantageous for the opposition seeking momentum.

However, achieving a 20% early voting rate is by no means an easy goal. In the October 28, 2015 re- and by-elections, early voting turnout was only 3.58%, showing a considerable gap from the 20% mentioned by Mayor Hong.

Interestingly, the most recent Seoul by-election held on April 7, 2021, surpassed the 20% early voting rate. The early voting turnout then was 21.95%, setting a record for the highest early voting rate in by-elections.

Both parties spun ‘hope circuits’ after seeing those results. The then-ruling Democratic Party of Korea, despite trailing in polls, attributed the rise in early voting to the consolidation of their support base. Meanwhile, the opposition People Power Party analyzed it as “the beginning of a wave of public sentiment to judge the government.”

On June 1, 2022, the day of the 8th nationwide local elections, voters cast their precious votes at the 5th polling station of Bukgajwa 2-dong, set up at the SANMEAG coffee shop in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

The April 7, 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election, a direct contest between People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon and Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun, was considered to have tilted early on, but the unexpectedly high early voting turnout made both parties nervous.

Ultimately, the total voter turnout for that Seoul mayoral by-election reached 58.2%. Considering it was a weekday by-election, this was a notably high turnout.

In the counting results, Oh Se-hoon won with 57.5% of the vote, while Park Young-sun lost with 39.2%.

Does this mean the high early voting turnout had little effect on the election trend? It is difficult to say so. Oh Se-hoon’s final vote share was generally similar to or slightly higher than pre-election polls.

On the other hand, Park Young-sun’s final vote share was about 10 percentage points higher than pre-election polls. This somewhat confirmed the Yeouido political circles’ analysis at the time that higher early voting turnout would favor the Democratic Party.

Similarly, the early voting participation rate on October 6 and 7 is expected to be a critical variable in the October 11 Gangseo District mayoral by-election.