Lee Jae-myung to Miss Today's Plenary Session... How Many Democratic Party Defections Will Occur?

Vote on Arrest Motion for Lee on 21st in National Assembly
"No Personal Remarks or Messages"
Quorum for Approval 148 Votes... '120 Votes' in Favor
Democratic Party Faces Arrest Motion Passage if Over 28 Members Defect

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, will not attend the National Assembly plenary session on the 21st. He will also not make a personal statement before the vote on the arrest consent motion.

The Democratic Party stated in a notice sent to the press corps that "Leader Lee will not attend the plenary session" and "there will be no personal statement or message regarding the arrest consent motion." Lee is currently hospitalized at Green Hospital in Jungnang-gu, Seoul.

The day before, Lee publicly requested a 'rejection' vote through a lengthy post on Facebook titled 'Please stop the runaway locomotive of prosecutorial dictatorship.'

Lee said, "We must not be defeated by succumbing to the tricks of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration's unjust abuse of state power and the political prosecution's political machinations," adding, "This fight is not just between Lee Jae-myung and the prosecution. Please stop the runaway locomotive of prosecutorial dictatorship in front of the National Assembly and protect the constitutional order and democracy in crisis."

In political circles, attention has been focused on the possibility of Lee attending the plenary session today while continuing his hunger strike in the hospital. His attendance itself could affect the quorum for approval, and if he makes a personal statement before the vote, it is expected to strengthen the consolidation of rejection votes within the Democratic Party.

Currently, there are a total of 298 members of the National Assembly. Excluding Lee, who is hospitalized, lawmaker Yoon Kwan-seok, who is in detention, and Foreign Minister Park Jin, who is on an overseas trip, the maximum number of attendees for the vote today is 295. If a majority of 148 vote in favor, the motion will pass. It is expected that 120 votes will be in favor, including 110 from the People Power Party (excluding Foreign Minister Park Jin), 6 from the Justice Party, lawmaker Cho Jung-hoon of the Transition Korea Party, lawmaker Yang Hyang-ja of Korea's Hope, and independent lawmakers Ha Young-je and Hwang Bo-seung-hee.

If more than 28 Democratic Party lawmakers defect, the arrest consent motion could be approved.

In the February vote on the arrest consent motion for Lee, it is estimated that about 30 lawmakers defected. At that time, out of 297 seated lawmakers, 139 voted in favor (approved), 138 against (rejected), 9 abstained, and 11 votes were invalid. The large number of invalid votes caused the motion to fail to meet the 'majority approval' criterion. It was analyzed that only 138 out of 169 Democratic Party lawmakers voted against the motion, which led to strong internal backlash against the remaining dissenters.

Most Democratic Party lawmakers who voted in favor in the first vote are likely to choose approval again this time, and if abstentions and invalid votes also turn into approval votes, the outcome of the arrest consent motion vote is unpredictable.

However, the fact that the prosecution requested an arrest warrant on the day Lee was transferred to the hospital due to his prolonged hunger strike, spreading sympathy within the party, is a variable different from the first vote.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Park Kwang-on, floor leader of the Democratic Party, visited Lee, who has been on a hunger strike for 22 days, and requested him to stop the strike.

Park visited Green Hospital in Jungnang-gu, Seoul, where Lee is hospitalized, and said, "You need to regain your strength quickly, so please stop (the hunger strike) now. For your health," adding, "Supporters and those who like you are very worried."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In response, Lee said, "Nothing has changed, and the situation seems to be getting worse, so I feel frustrated."

Park said, "We will unite our strength to respond and fight. Having you here gives us strength," and repeatedly requested him to stop.

However, Lee did not give a definite answer about stopping the hunger strike, saying, "Since this is a human endeavor, if we do our best, we can change the situation." Lee was transferred to the hospital on the 18th, the 19th day of his hunger strike, and is currently receiving intravenous fluids without food intake.