[Political X-File] The Fierce Winds Blowing Every General Election... The Harsh District Candidacy Wind

(30) Pressured to Run... The Plight of Multi-term Lawmakers
Decisive Move to Run in Difficult Districts as a Political Leap
Political Life Dependent on Election Outcomes

Editor's Note‘Political X-File’ is a series that delivers ‘unprecedented stories’ recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

“I still have a very important task to accomplish in Haeundae. It is a promise to the people of my constituency, and I believe that easily breaking this promise is not proper politics.”

This is what Ha Tae-kyung, a member of the People Power Party, said in an interview with YTN Radio’s ‘News King Park Ji-hoon’ on the 10th. As rumors of Ha Tae-kyung being drafted to the Seoul metropolitan area surfaced within the party, he expressed his determination to defend his constituency, Busan Haeundae District.

Ha Tae-kyung is a veteran politician of Busan Haeundae District, having been consecutively elected in the last three general elections in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Haeundae is a stronghold of the People Power Party even within Busan, a so-called favorable district.

In Ha Tae-kyung’s constituency, which is not classified as pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Seok-yeol faction), it is known that multiple figures, including those with strong trust from President Yoon Seok-yeol, are hoping to be nominated. This has led to speculation that the People Power Party candidate for Haeundae might change. Although Ha Tae-kyung has proven his competitiveness through elections, the results largely reflect the party’s support base rather than individual ability, which is the background for the replacement theory in next year’s general election.

Is there any basis for the perception that regardless of who runs, the equation ‘Haeundae = People Power Party victory’ holds true? Whether Ha Tae-kyung is nominated or not is one of the variables that could influence the flow of the People Power Party’s general election campaign. It could become a spark for internal conflict within the party.

An interesting point is that the so-called ‘Seoul metropolitan area draft theory’ and the trend of running in difficult districts have been recurring scenes in every general election.

There is a trend of encouraging non-mainstream party members to run in weaker party areas to take their seats, and some politicians move from their own constituencies to difficult districts depending on their political beliefs and ambitions. Sometimes, after realizing the low probability of being nominated in their own constituencies, they strategically choose to knock on the door of a difficult district.

A difficult district refers to an area where the party’s influence is relatively weak, and winning there would be a great gift to the party. It is a challenging area, so if a politician wins based on personal ability, the meaning of victory is doubled.

Sometimes, politicians pretend to run in difficult districts to boost their political effect even when the district is not actually difficult. Those familiar with political affairs find this situation frustrating, but ordinary people who do not know the detailed circumstances of the district may be deceived by such ‘political deception’.

Looking at the main actors of running in difficult districts in past general and by-elections, it is mainly political leaders of major parties. They recognize that winning in a politically symbolic place is a way to maximize their political value rather than just gaining another term in their own district.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

It is relatively rare for a member with a constituency in Yeongnam to run in Honam or vice versa. Challenging a place that is close to a political death zone rather than just a difficult district requires bearing a significant political burden.

There have been cases where politicians based in Yeongnam ran in Honam constituencies or politicians based in Honam ran in Yeongnam constituencies.

Kim Tae-rang, a politician classified as part of the Donggyodong faction who followed former President Kim Dae-jung, entered the National Assembly in the 15th general election in 1996 by succeeding a nationwide proportional representation seat. Although he could have run in Honam or Seoul, strongholds of the New Politics Alliance for Democracy, he chose Gyeongnam.

Kim Tae-rang’s challenge in the Gyeongnam Miryang-Changnyeong district as a Donggyodong faction member ended with a 26.6% vote share and defeat. The competing candidate from the Hannara Party, Kim Yong-gap, won with 54.7%. Although Kim Tae-rang performed well in a difficult district, his vote share was far from winning.

Another memorable case is former lawmaker Kim Hyo-seok, who served three terms in Jeonnam Damyang-Gokseong-Jangseong-Gurye, challenging Seoul Gangseo District in the 19th general election in 2012. As a former floor leader of the Democratic Party, he left Jeonnam, where his election was almost guaranteed, to challenge Seoul.

Politician Kim Hyo-seok performed quite well with 49.6% of the vote but ultimately lost. His opponent was Kim Sung-tae, the incumbent lawmaker of Gangseo District. Kim Sung-tae, the Saenuri Party candidate, secured 50.4% of the vote and defended his constituency.

It is not easy for a politician from another area to compete against an incumbent with a solid local base and high recognition. Even if they have served multiple terms in Yeongnam or Honam, their political base in Seoul is weak, making them similar to political newcomers.

Former Grand National Party Chairman Kang Jae-seop (right in the photo)

Expanding the scope beyond general elections to by-elections, the April 27, 2011 by-election in Bundang, Seongnam City, Gyeonggi Province, is notable. At that time, Son Hak-kyu, then leader of the Democratic Party, challenged Bundang, a difficult district for the party.

The Hannara Party responded with Kang Jae-seop, a former party leader. Kang Jae-seop, a political heavyweight known as the leader of Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK), running in Bundang was itself an interesting point. Bundang is a stronghold of the Hannara Party, but moving from Daegu to the Seoul metropolitan area was not an easy decision.

Winning would have established him as a prominent central politician, but losing could threaten his political life.

In the by-election, Democratic candidate Son Hak-kyu won with 51.0% of the vote. Hannara candidate Kang Jae-seop also performed well with 48.3% but could not avoid defeat. The Bundang election, where both ruling and opposition parties took political risks, left a lesson in political history.

Winner Son Hak-kyu solidified his position as a presidential candidate, but Kang Jae-seop effectively began his political retirement. Younger politicians are aware of such outcomes. Although the theory of running in difficult districts surges every general election, it is difficult to put into practice.

The 22nd general election is also likely to see the theory of running in difficult districts gain momentum for various reasons. Who will actually run in difficult districts? Will they taste the joy of victory and use it as a stepping stone for political advancement? Or will they experience harsh political setbacks? The subjects and outcomes of running in difficult districts will be an interesting point to watch in the 22nd general election.