Next Month's Seoul Move-in Volume Highest This Year... Will Jeonse Prices Fall Further?

February Move-in Volume Up 67% Year-on-Year
Approximately 150,000 Households to Move In During First Half of This Year

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Min-young] Next month, the supply of apartments nationwide is expected to increase by more than 60% compared to a year ago. In particular, large-scale complex move-ins will begin in Seoul, making it likely that the highest volume of move-ins this year will occur. In areas such as Seoul, Daegu, and Incheon, where the recent decline in jeonse prices continues and large-scale supply overlaps, an expansion in the decline of jeonse prices is inevitable.

According to Zigbang on the 30th, the nationwide move-in volume in February is 23,808 households, 67% more than the same month last year. By region, the metropolitan area will see 15,206 households move in, a 98% increase from the same period last year, while the provinces will have 8,602 households, 30% more than the previous year.

In the metropolitan area, the move-in volume is highest in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon, with Seoul expecting 6,303 households to move in, the largest supply anticipated within the year. Large-scale complexes completed through redevelopment projects, such as Gaepo Xi Presidences with a total of 3,375 households and Heukseok River Park, will begin move-ins. In Gyeonggi, 5,029 households will move in from areas like Pangyo and Hwaseong, and Incheon will see 3,874 households moving into two large complexes. In the provinces, Daegu, where recent move-in volumes have concentrated, will have 2,148 households moving in, followed by Gangwon with 1,783 households and Jeonbuk with 1,706 households.

Zigbang estimates that a total of 149,469 apartment households will move in during the first half of this year. This is about 37% more than the same period last year and exceeds the approximately 100,000 households that moved in during 2021-2022. The metropolitan area’s move-in volume in the first half is expected to increase by 56% year-on-year to 85,452 households, with Seoul accounting for 13,523 households, Gyeonggi 48,611 households, and Incheon 23,318 households. Daegu is expected to have the highest move-in volume among the provinces.

With the surge in new apartment supply, jeonse prices in some areas are expected to fall further. For example, the sale price of a 59㎡ unit in Gaepo Xi Presidences is around 1.8 billion KRW, but the jeonse price has dropped to as low as 650 million KRW. The situation is similar in Heukseok River Park Xi. Prospective tenants who planned to pay the balance after receiving the jeonse deposit found it difficult to find tenants, leading them to continuously lower asking prices, causing the jeonse price for a 59㎡ unit to fall to the 400 million KRW range.

Ham Young-jin, head of Zigbang Big Data Lab, said, "As the recent decline in jeonse prices continues and the supply of move-in volumes overlaps, in areas where new apartments are concentrated such as Seoul, Daegu, and Incheon, the expansion of jeonse price declines due to inventory accumulation and lack of jeonse demand is unavoidable."