[The Editors' Verdict] "Golden Time" for the Population Shock Is Running Out

Total Fertility Rate at 0.75, Lowest in the World
Yoon Suk-yeol Administration Fails to Recognize the Crisis

The term "gray rhinoceros" is an economic concept referring to a crisis that occurs because warning signs of danger have been continuously present and predictable, yet proper responses were not made. It is a metaphor for a massive rhinoceros that, although expected to be noticed and prepared for from afar when it moves, charges at a terrifying speed, leaving people unable to avoid it properly. This concept was first introduced by Michele Wucker, director of the Global Policy Institute, at the 2013 Davos Forum.

South Korea's population issue, with a fertility rate below one child per woman, is very much like a gray rhinoceros. South Korea's total fertility rate is 0.75 (the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years), ranking it overwhelmingly last in the world. The aging speed is also tremendous. According to the OECD, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in Korea this year is 17.5%, and it is estimated to exceed 20% by 2025, entering a super-aged society. South Korea is the country with the world's lowest fertility rate and the fastest aging population. At this pace, South Korea could face a sharp economic contraction due to population decline and potentially take the worst path of national extinction, similar to the Roman Empire. However, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration still seems not to recognize this as a crisis. Since his inauguration in May, President Yoon has chaired emergency economic and livelihood meetings almost weekly, emphasizing livelihood issues, but has never put the population problem on the main agenda.

▶Special Report ｜ [Population Cliff] South Korea Disappears

- ①[Report] Every Other House is Empty... Last Month 'Zero Births' in Naedang-dong, Daegu

- ②In 30 Years, Dong-gu, Incheon and Yeongdo-gu, Busan Will Disappear

- ③"The Solution to Low Fertility is Improving Quality of Life... Resolving Imbalances in Education, Labor, and Housing"

- ④In 50 Years, Half the Population Will Be Elderly Over 65... Population Structure Reversal, Inflation Entrenchment

- ⑤Despite Pouring 300 Trillion Won, Fertility Rate Remains World's Lowest... South Korea's Population Policy Dark History

- ⑥More Taxpayers but Increasing Government Spending... "Budget Restructuring Needed"

- ⑦ "Welfare Should Be Directed Toward Making the Country Child-Friendly"

- ⑧Differentiated Minimum Wage by Age... Can Increase Jobs for the Elderly

- ⑨Expansion of Foreign Immigration is Inevitable... "Gaining Public Trust is Important"

However, the population issue is no longer a matter to procrastinate. But it is also meaningless to now promote birth encouragement policies by saying "population is national power, childbirth is patriotism." Since 2006, more than 380 trillion won has been poured into low fertility countermeasures, but all have failed. Moreover, birth encouragement policies will not work on the younger generation, who widely embrace lifestyles such as being unmarried, single, or DINK (Double Income No Kids). Regarding the fertility rate of 0.75, some young people even say, "Who on earth gave birth to produce that data?" If population policies continue to focus on childbirth as before, it is obvious they will fail again.

Now, we must shift the paradigm of population policy to mitigating population decline. The most realistic method is to raise the age range of the elderly population to increase the working-age population. If skilled people are maximally utilized in production sites, the adverse effects of the decline in the working-age population can be prevented. Of course, since such retirement age extension should not lead to job conflicts with the younger generation, it is necessary to consider measures such as differentiated minimum wages or retirement age extension centered on job-based pay systems.

Immigration policy must also be expanded. Germany, once called the "sick man of Europe," expanded its working-age population through immigration policies and has become the undisputed top in Europe. Of course, given the strong single-ethnicity consciousness in Korea, immigration policy is not easy. However, there is little time left to debate whether immigration fits the national sentiment. Rather, opening immigration doors like Germany to increase the working-age population could strengthen national power. Expanding foreign student recruitment programs, such as the U.S. Fulbright Scholarship, to attract various professionals is also worth considering.

Having entered a path no other country in the world has taken, if we do not actively address the population decline issue even now, we will not be able to be confident about the nation's future. As David Coleman, a professor at Oxford University, warned, "South Korea will be the first country on Earth to disappear."