[Population Cliff] ② In 30 Years, Incheon Dong-gu and Busan Yeongdo-gu Will Disappear

70% of Districts in 6 Major Metropolitan Cities Have Lost Population Over the Past Decade
Population Cliff Hits Even Large Cities Due to Falling Birth Rates and Collapse of Key Industries... Regional Extinction Leads to National Extinction

[Asia Economy Sejong=Reporter Kwon Haeyoung] Population decline is becoming a reality not only in rural and small local cities but also in large metropolitan areas, turning into a 'population disaster.' Over the past decade, 70% of the 49 counties and districts in the six major metropolitan cities have experienced population decreases. With both marriage and childbirth rapidly declining, even the six major metropolitan cities, which serve as regional residential and industrial hubs, have not escaped the population cliff. According to Statistics Korea's analysis, at this rate, South Korea's population will sharply drop to 38 million by 2070 and 21 million by 2120. This means that in just 50 years, a population equivalent to that of Gyeonggi Province (13.59 million) will vanish entirely from South Korea.

◆Population Cliff Unavoidable Even in Major Cities＝According to resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety on the 26th, over the past 10 years (July 2012 to July 2022), more than 70% of the 49 counties and districts in the six major metropolitan cities?Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, and Ulsan?have seen population declines. Among these, 19 areas (38.8%) experienced a population decrease of over 10%, and 3 areas (6.1%) shrank by more than 20%. While the total domestic population increased by 1.4% during the same period, population extinction is rapidly progressing in key regional metropolitan cities.

Looking at the regions, Daegu Seo-gu saw the largest decrease with a 26.8% population drop, followed by Incheon Dong-gu (-24.4%) and Busan Yeongdo-gu (-22.6%). Significant population declines were also observed in Daejeon Daedeok-gu (-15.4%), Ulsan Dong-gu (-12.2%), and Gwangju Seo-gu (-9.4%). Seo-gu in Daegu has continuously deteriorated since the 1990s due to the decline of light industries such as textiles, and rapid shrinkage occurred as residents moved to nearby developed areas. Major areas in Daejeon, including Daedeok-gu, are also experiencing population decreases as residents move to nearby Sejong City. Busan Yeongdo-gu and Ulsan Dong-gu, once shipbuilding hubs, saw accelerated population outflows due to the shipbuilding industry's downturn in the 2010s. Notably, Busan's overall city population decreased by 5.9% over the past decade, marking the largest population decline among metropolitan cities except for Incheon, which was the only city to see population growth during this period.

This population decline is pushing even local metropolitan cities toward the brink of extinction. According to the National Assembly Legislative Research Office's report titled 'Current Status and Future Tasks of Local Extinction Risk Areas,' released last October, 48.3% of Busan's towns, townships, and neighborhoods are at risk of extinction. The extinction risk index refers to the ratio of women aged 20-39 to the elderly population aged 65 and over; a value of 1.0 or less indicates entry into extinction risk, and below 0.5 signifies a high risk of extinction. A significant number of towns, townships, and neighborhoods in Daegu (32.9%), Incheon (27.0%), Gwangju (23.7%), Daejeon (20.3%), and Ulsan (19.6%) are also at risk of disappearing.

◆Newborn Cries Drop Sharply... After Regional Extinction, 'National Extinction'＝The population cliff and regional extinction risk affecting even major cities starkly reveal the reality of South Korea's low birthrate and aging population. Last year, South Korea's total population (including foreign residents) was 51,738,000, a decrease of about 91,000 (0.2%) from the previous year. This is the first time since the government began compiling related statistics in 1949 that the total domestic population has declined in 72 years. The sharp drop in birthrate is due to an increasing number of young people avoiding marriage or childbirth because of employment difficulties and burdens related to housing and child-rearing costs.

The birth indicators are even more bleak. Last year, the number of newborns in South Korea was 260,600, a 4.3% decrease from the previous year. The total fertility rate, which is the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, dropped by 0.03 to 0.81 during the same period. This is the lowest among the 38 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Not only is it below the OECD average (1.59 as of 2020), but it is also the only country with a fertility rate below 1. The total fertility rate for the second quarter of this year fell further to 0.75, making it highly likely to record an annual rate in the 0.7 range.

In fact, even in major metropolitan cities, it is becoming increasingly difficult to hear the cries of newborns. Among the towns, townships, and neighborhoods in the six major metropolitan cities excluding Seoul, 88 areas registered zero births in July this year. Busan had the highest number with 31, followed by Incheon (25, or 10 excluding Ganghwa and Ongjin counties), Daegu (15), Gwangju (12), Daejeon (4), and Ulsan (1). Particularly in Busan, where the number of newborns is rapidly decreasing, 40 towns, townships, and neighborhoods?19.5% of the total?had fewer than 10 births from the beginning of the year through July.

Experts point out that the population decline, which began in rural areas, has spread to large metropolitan cities, threatening the very foundation of urban existence.

Professor Jeon Youngsoo of Hanyang University's Graduate School of International Studies said, "Regional metropolitan cities are currently suffering from a double blow: natural population decline due to the overall drop in birthrates and social outflow caused by the collapse of key industries, leading to population loss to the Seoul metropolitan area. Although the Seoul metropolitan area currently supports the regions, if the steep decline in birthrates and regional extinction are not stopped, we will soon face the issue of 'national extinction,' not just regional extinction."