Will Voting Behavior Change in Seoul District Mayor Elections?...'Cross Voting' Evident Instead of 'Straight Voting'

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon Ranked First in All 25 Autonomous Districts, with 'Double Voting' for Mayor and District Heads in Gangnam 4 Districts and Other People Power Party Strongholds, While 8 Districts Show Split Voting Between Mayor and District Heads

[Asia Economy Reporter Jong-il Park] In the June 1 local elections, Mayor Oh Se-hoon gained popularity to the extent that he ranked first in all 25 autonomous districts of Seoul.

This means that all citizens of Seoul in the 25 districts chose the current Mayor Oh Se-hoon as a more competitive candidate to develop Seoul than the Democratic Party candidate Song Young-gil.

Despite this trend, eight candidates from the Democratic Party, including Jung Won-oh of Seongdong and Ryu Kyung-gi of Jungnang District, won victories, showcasing their competitiveness.

In the eight autonomous districts where these Democratic candidates were elected, such as Seongdong, Jungnang, Nowon, and Eunpyeong, a 'split voting' pattern was revealed, where voters chose 'Mayor Oh Se-hoon and the respective district mayor candidate.'

In the so-called 'Gangnam 4 districts'?Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, Gangdong?and the Han River-side districts of Mapo, Yongsan, Gwangjin, as well as Yangcheon, Gangseo, Yeongdeungpo, Dongjak, Jongno, Jung, Seodaemun, and Dobong, totaling 17 districts, a 'straight ticket voting' phenomenon was prominent, where voters selected Mayor Oh Se-hoon and the People Power Party district mayor candidates, both marked as number 2.

Additionally, for Seoul City Council members, 70 seats went to the People Power Party and 31 to the Democratic Party, showing a two-thirds majority voting straight ticket for candidates marked number 2, including Mayor Oh Se-hoon.

Notably, the largest 'split voting' phenomenon, where voters chose Mayor Oh Se-hoon but the incumbent Democratic district mayor, was observed in Seongdong District.

In Seongdong District, Mayor Oh Se-hoon received 60.9% of the vote, while Democratic candidate Jung Won-oh received 57.6%, and People Power Party candidate Kang Maeng-hoon received 42.39%, showing a significant 18.5% gap between Oh and Kang.

The 3.3% difference between Oh Se-hoon and Jung Won-oh's vote shares contrasts sharply with the 18.5% gap between Oh and Kang, a sixfold difference that drew attention. This is analyzed as being due to Jung Won-oh, the incumbent district mayor, having maintained close contact with local residents for eight years, whereas Kang Maeng-hoon was confirmed as a candidate only three months before the June 1 local elections, limiting his opportunities to introduce himself to residents.

Moreover, Jung's election strategy was effective, as he held the election office opening ceremony centered on residents without inviting Democratic Party candidate Song Young-gil or city and district council candidates, thus minimizing overt Democratic Party influence.

The district with the second-largest vote share gap between Mayor Oh Se-hoon and the district mayor candidate is Nowon District, where the difference between Oh and Im Jae-hyuk is 9.2%. This is attributed to Nowon having three Democratic Party members of the National Assembly and the incumbent Democratic district mayor Oh Seung-rok running for re-election.

The third is Jungnang District, characterized by a rematch between current district mayor Ryu Kyung-gi, a former Seoul Deputy Mayor, and former district mayor Na Jin-gu, with Mayor Oh Se-hoon actively campaigning for Na.

In this district, the vote share difference between Oh Se-hoon (54.86%) and Ryu Kyung-gi (53.02%) is 1.8%, whereas the gap between Oh and People Power Party candidate Na Jin-gu (46.97%) is 7.9%, more than four times larger.

This is seen as a result of Ryu Kyung-gi's passionate efforts over the past four years in creating an educational city and regional development, earning high evaluations from residents.

Additionally, the vote share differences between Mayor Oh Se-hoon and People Power Party district mayor candidates are as follows: 4th place Geumcheon District (6.9%), 5th Gwanak District (6%), 6th Seongbuk District (5.6%), 7th Eunpyeong District (5.3%), and 8th Gangbuk District (4.2%), all traditionally Democratic Party strongholds.

A resident of Gangbuk District, Mr. A, said shortly after the election, "I voted for Mayor Oh Se-hoon and the Democratic Party candidate for district mayor."

A Seoul city district official analyzed, "In the past, there was a strong tendency for 'straight ticket voting' where voters chose candidates from the same party for mayor and district mayor, but this time, a 'split voting' phenomenon breaking away from that pattern appeared, which is noteworthy. Ultimately, it shows the significant premium of being an incumbent district mayor."