"Possibility of North Korea's Nuclear Test During Memorial Day Week", Additional Sanctions Against North Korea Dropped

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] There is an analysis that North Korea is highly likely to conduct its 7th nuclear test during the week of Memorial Day, the U.S. holiday on the 30th of next week.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Both our government and the U.S. administration have identified that North Korea has virtually completed preparations for a nuclear test and are closely monitoring the situation. Since it is expected that the nuclear test will take place by mid-next month at the latest, tensions on the Korean Peninsula are anticipated to escalate. The U.N. resolution on additional sanctions against North Korea, led by the U.S., was rejected.

Victor Cha, Vice President of the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote on the 26th (local time) in an article titled "North Korea's Provocations During U.S. Holidays," stating, "North Korea has shown a pattern of disrupting major U.S. holidays," and predicted, "It seems highly likely that North Korea will carry out a nuclear test during the upcoming U.S. Memorial Day week (May 30)."

He added, "According to our satellite image analysis, the third tunnel at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in North Korea is almost fully prepared." Vice President Cha had previously mentioned the possibility of provocations during Memorial Day week at a CSIS-hosted forum on the 23rd, saying, "North Korea loves U.S. national holidays."

According to Vice President Cha, North Korea conducted missile tests during Memorial Day seven times in total: in 1990, twice in 1993, 1997, 2007, 2009, and 2017. The 6th nuclear test was conducted on September 4, 2017, the day before Labor Day.

Our government has assessed that North Korea has virtually completed preparations for the 7th nuclear test. Recently, Kim Tae-hyo, First Deputy Director of the National Security Office, stated, "The possibility of a nuclear test occurring within a day or two is low, but after that period, it is quite possible." He cited the detection of nuclear detonation device operation tests, known as 'high-explosive tests,' in North Korea over the past few weeks as evidence.

Intelligence authorities believe that if not during Memorial Day week, North Korea may issue a nuclear test order during the upcoming plenary meeting of the Workers' Party Central Committee, scheduled between June 1 and 15, where Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, is expected to give the order.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

When North Korea conducted its 6th nuclear test in 2017, Kim Jong-un also convened the Standing Committee of the Party Political Bureau and approved the nuclear test. Therefore, there is a forecast that the moment Kim Jong-un makes a decision on the nuclear test by asserting procedural legitimacy, it will be immediately executed.

In the context of escalating nuclear threats from North Korea, additional sanctions resolutions against North Korea due to missile launches and other military provocations were blocked by China and Russia.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the United Nations Security Council held a vote on a resolution for additional sanctions against North Korea, including reducing North Korea's fuel import limits, at a meeting held at the UN headquarters in New York on the same day.

Although the resolution passed the approval threshold with 13 countries in favor, it was ultimately rejected as permanent members China and Russia cast opposing votes.

This Security Council meeting was the first vote on a North Korea sanctions resolution since the unanimous adoption of Resolution 2397 on December 22, 2017. For a Security Council resolution to pass, at least 9 of the 15 member states must vote in favor, and none of the 5 permanent members may veto.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. Ambassador to the UN and chair of the Security Council, said, "Today is a disappointing day as the world faces the clear and present danger posed by North Korea," and pointed out, "The Security Council's restraint and silence do not eliminate or reduce such threats but rather embolden North Korea."

Our government also expressed regret over the rejection of the additional UN Security Council sanctions resolution against North Korea.

Choi Young-sam, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated in a commentary on the 27th, "We deeply regret that the new Security Council sanctions resolution against North Korea was not adopted despite the majority of Security Council members' support, amid ongoing provocations such as North Korea's ballistic missile launches and the possibility of a nuclear test."