Independent Current Gijang County Governor Positive Rating 82.2%, After 3 Terms Next 'Gukhim'
Opposition Party District Heads Also 'Doing Well' Over 50%, But 'Support the New Government'
[Asia Economy Yeongnam Reporting Headquarters Reporter Kim Yong-woo] “Will the local power be replaced or maintained?”
With the June 1 local elections approaching, attention is focused on the outcome of the elections in the districts and counties of Busan, led by opposition parties and independent local government heads.
Traditionally, Busan has been known for its strong conservative and right-wing sentiment, but in the last local elections, many local government heads from the Democratic Party were elected following the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye.
Whether the Democratic Party local government heads will maintain their local power or if the People Power Party, which regained power in the last presidential election, will continue its momentum into the local elections is drawing keen interest.
A recent local election poll targeting five districts and counties in Busan?Busan’s Gijang County led by independent Oh Gyu-seok, and the Democratic Party-controlled Haeundae-gu, Sasang-gu, Gangseo-gu, and Dong-gu?serves as a litmus test for the election trends.
Ahead of this local election, KBS and MBC jointly conducted a public opinion poll from the 16th to the 18th.
In Gijang County, where independent incumbent Oh Gyu-seok is stepping down after serving three terms, the largest number of candidates among Busan’s local government head elections?five candidates?have entered the race.
In this poll, the job performance approval rating of independent incumbent Oh Gyu-seok was an outstanding 82.2%, incomparable to other regions where local government heads received positive ratings in the 50% range.
Attention is focused on which party will take over this area where an independent local government head is leaving. Among the candidates, People Power Party’s Jeong Jong-bok leads with 39.5%.
Democratic Party candidate Woo Seong-bin received 20.3%, independent candidate Kim Jeong-woo 9%, Shin Dae-gyeom 4.8%, and Shim Heon-woo 2.9%, following behind.
In Gangseo-gu, Democratic Party candidate No Gi-tae, seeking to retain the district head position, and People Power Party candidate Kim Hyeong-chan are in a close race.
Kim Hyeong-chan received 43% support, and No Gi-tae 42.5%, with the margin within the margin of error, indicating a neck-and-neck contest.
In Haeundae-gu, known as Busan’s new political hotspot, the People Power Party candidate has taken the lead.
Incumbent Democratic Party candidate Hong Soon-heon, seeking re-election, faces People Power Party candidate Kim Seong-su, former chief of Haeundae Police Station.
In this poll, Kim Seong-su leads with 49.9%, ahead of Hong Soon-heon’s 35.1% by 14.8 percentage points.
Sasang-gu, the former electoral district of ex-President Moon Jae-in, is now an open field as the Democratic Party district head steps down. It is also the electoral district of Jang Je-won, a close aide to President Yoon Seok-youl.
Democratic Party candidate Shin Sang-hae, former chairperson of the Busan City Council, and People Power Party candidate Jo Byeong-gil, chairperson of the Sasang District Council, are competing.
Jo Byeong-gil leads with 48.8%, while Shin Sang-hae has 30.1%, with Jo’s lead beyond the margin of error.
In Dong-gu, the old downtown where Busan’s past and future coexist, the incumbent district head is trailing.
Incumbent Democratic Party candidate Choi Hyeong-wook has 29% support, while People Power Party candidate Kim Jin-hong has 55.3%, with a gap of 26.3 percentage points.
Summarizing this Busan local government head election poll, People Power Party candidates are leading in four districts, with only one district showing a very close race.
However, in the poll, voters in these areas evaluated the incumbent local government heads’ administration positively.
Although the current opposition or independent local government heads are performing well, it is interpreted that voters are choosing the People Power Party to support the new government.
Among these five areas, excluding the vacant Sasang-gu, the positive evaluation of independent Gijang County head Oh Gyu-seok’s administration was outstanding at 82.2%, with a negative evaluation of 7.5%.
Also, among the three incumbent local government heads running in this election, Gangseo-gu head No Gi-tae received a 52% positive and 16.4% negative evaluation.
Haeundae-gu head Hong Soon-heon received 52% positive and 14.8% negative evaluations, and Dong-gu head Choi Hyeong-wook received 53.8% positive and 16.7% negative evaluations.
Local voters generally evaluated all three incumbent candidates as having managed district administration well.
However, in the perception survey regarding the local elections, voters in Gangseo-gu, Haeundae-gu, Gijang County, Sasang-gu, and Dong-gu all chose the People Power Party.
The party support rates in these five local governments all showed People Power Party support exceeding 50%, overwhelmingly surpassing the Democratic Party.
The extent to which the ruling party People Power Party’s support in the early days of its administration will influence the Busan local government head elections will be decided on June 1.
◆This poll was conducted by KBS Busan and Busan MBC, commissioned to Research & Research, over three days from the 16th to the 18th.
The survey targeted men and women aged 18 and over in the respective areas, with sample sizes of 501 in Gangseo-gu, 537 in Gijang County, 500 in Haeundae-gu, 524 in Sasang-gu, and 508 in Dong-gu.
The survey method was a structured questionnaire via 1:1 telephone interviews (CATI). Respondent selection was by landline RDD and mobile phone virtual numbers (Gangseo-gu: 16% landline telephone interviews + 84% mobile telephone interviews) (Gijang County: 7% landline + 93% mobile) (Haeundae-gu: 10% landline + 90% mobile) (Sasang-gu: 9% landline + 91% mobile) (Dong-gu: 12% landline + 88% mobile).
Weights were applied by region, gender, and age (based on the resident registration population as of the end of April 2022 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety).
The sampling error is ±4.2 percentage points for Gijang County, ±4.3 percentage points for Sasang-gu and Dong-gu, and ±4.4 percentage points for Gangseo-gu and Haeundae-gu, with a 95% confidence level.
Response rates were 6.1% in Gangseo-gu (501 respondents out of 8,254 calls), 10.7% in Gijang County (537 out of 5,033), 6.9% in Haeundae-gu (500 out of 7,197), 8.5% in Sasang-gu (524 out of 6,183), and 8.6% in Dong-gu (508 out of 5,933).
The questions included suitability of candidates for local government heads.
For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.
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