Omicron Spread... China's Proud 'Zero COVID' on the Brink of Collapse? [Reading Science]

Nature "Recent Surge of Around 6,000 Patients per Day"
Conflicting Views on China's Situation Outlook: "Positive" vs "Negative" Report

In a region of China, quarantine workers are walking amid obstacles installed for epidemic prevention. Photo by Nature

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] China is facing its greatest crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020. The rapid spread of the Omicron variant has caused a massive surge in infections, threatening to undo all the progress made in controlling the virus.

On the 29th, the international scientific journal Nature reported under the headline "Will Omicron eventually break down China's COVID-19 defenses?" According to Nature, China recently recorded over 62,000 COVID-19 cases across its 31 provinces, with most infections confirmed to be caused by the Omicron variant, which is known to be about three times more transmissible than previous strains.

Chinese authorities are currently in a state of emergency, locking down major metropolitan areas with tens of millions of residents. President Xi Jinping stated earlier this month that China would continue its existing zero-COVID strategy. This means maintaining strict containment policies to strongly prevent the virus from spreading through communities. Nature pointed out that "the zero-COVID strategy is the exact opposite of what other countries are doing, as they are easing strict regulations and attempting to coexist with the coronavirus." However, President Xi hinted at some easing of restrictions in his speech earlier this month, ordering limits on economically impactful measures. Chinese health authorities have stopped hospitalizing asymptomatic patients, instead sending them to self-isolation centers and shortening isolation periods compared to before.

There are growing concerns that the rapid spread of infections could overwhelm Chinese authorities, who may not be fully prepared for a large-scale outbreak. China has successfully contained infections outside of the initial Wuhan area during the early pandemic. Especially during the Beijing Winter Olympics in February, despite fears of widespread transmission due to the highly contagious Omicron variant, the situation was well controlled.

Some experts remain optimistic. Ben Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, said, "Chinese authorities have repeatedly assured that they can prevent large-scale outbreaks. Since they successfully contained Omicron during the Winter Olympics, even if case numbers rise in the coming days, active testing will soon bring the numbers back down to zero."

However, there are also opinions that the daily increase of 6,000 new cases is inevitable. Michael Osterholm, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Minnesota, said, "Cases are rising very rapidly and I believe the situation is out of control. China will not return to zero cases. To suppress the virus, strict containment measures that significantly slow down the economy will be necessary."

If the Omicron variant spreads widely, China is expected to suffer enormous damage. The UK-based bio-market analysis firm Airfinity recently estimated that China could see about one million deaths if Omicron spreads extensively, especially since the vaccination rate among the vulnerable population aged 80 and above is only 50%, which could lead to severe impacts. This prediction has already been reflected in Hong Kong. Earlier this month, Hong Kong's infection rate approached 900 cases per 100,000 people, the highest rate worldwide since the pandemic began. Deaths also continued to rise for nearly 300 days until early this month. Experts attribute Hong Kong's high fatality rate to the low vaccination rate among the elderly. In fact, only about 33% of Hong Kong's population aged 80 and above had completed vaccination, and 90% of deaths occurred in this group.

China could face a similar situation. The overall vaccination rate in China exceeds 85%. The problem is that a large number of elderly people who are not officially counted in population statistics remain unvaccinated. According to research from the University of Minnesota, 52 million people aged 60 and above in China have not completed vaccination, and among the vulnerable group aged 80 and above, only about 20% have received either the first or second dose or the third booster shot.

Moreover, the Sinovac vaccine used by the Chinese government reduces severe cases and mortality but requires a third dose to maintain strong protection for those aged 60 and above. Lu Zahai, a professor at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, China, said, "If the spread of the Omicron variant cannot be contained, the death toll could far exceed one million. Since the Chinese government is responsible for the lives of its citizens, it will not attempt to relax the current containment and control strategies."

The strong economic power that has supported China's zero-COVID strategy, namely the domestic market, is also facing questions about how long it can endure. Professor Cowling pointed out, "The decline in China's stock market indicates that the economy is struggling due to containment measures. As the coronavirus spreads freely anywhere, destructive large-scale outbreaks will occur more frequently."