"Elderly COVID-19 Cases 60,000-70,000 Daily... Deaths May Reach 600s"

Proportion of New Confirmed Cases Aged 60 and Over
Exceeds 20% for the First Time This Year

On the 17th, medical staff are caring for COVID-19 patients at Seoul Metropolitan Seobuk Hospital in Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul. According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency's Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters, as of midnight on the same day, the number of new COVID-19 cases reached 621,328, entering the 600,000 range for the first time. The number of critically ill patients was 1,159, down 85 from the previous day (1,244). The number of deaths was 429, marking the first time it reached the 400 range. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

As the COVID-19 pandemic driven by the Omicron variant enters its peak phase, the proportion of confirmed cases aged 60 and over has exceeded 20% for the first time this year. With 60,000 to 70,000 elderly cases emerging daily, concerns are rising that the number of deaths could exceed 400 per day and even reach the 600 range within the next 2 to 3 weeks.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 21st, among the 2,816,852 new domestic COVID-19 cases reported over the past week from the 14th to the 21st, 508,152 cases were aged 60 or older, accounting for 18.0% of the total. On the 20th alone, out of 334,686 confirmed cases, 67,878 were aged 60 or above, making up 20.3% of the total.

This is the first time in nearly three months since the end of December last year that the proportion of cases aged 60 and over has surpassed 20%. This ratio had dropped to 7-8% at one point in January but has risen to 18.3% on the 17th, 18.5% on the 18th, and 19.4% on the 19th.

During the early spread of COVID-19, the start of the third vaccine dose, and the Delta variant surge, the proportion of confirmed cases aged 60 and above fluctuated above 30%. However, the total number of confirmed cases at that time was only in the hundreds to thousands. For example, on December 8 last year, there were about 2,400 cases aged 60 or older. But with the Omicron spread pushing daily cases beyond 300,000, the number of cases aged 60 and above has increased to 60,000 to 70,000 or more. On the 17th, when the total cases peaked at over 620,000, cases aged 60 and above exceeded 110,000.

Professor Eom Jung-sik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University Gil Medical Center warned, "With 60,000 high-risk group cases emerging daily, deaths continue to occur at 300 to 400 or more per day, and if this proportion accumulates, it could reach the 600 range. There is no guarantee that deaths will not exceed 1,000 per day like during the Omicron surge in the UK."

The number of COVID-19 deaths announced on this day was 329, the second highest ever after 429 on the 17th. The death toll has remained above 300 for five consecutive days: 301 on the 18th, 319 on the 19th, and 327 on the 20th.

Although the third vaccine dose coverage rate among those aged 60 and above has reached 90%, the waning of infection prevention effectiveness over time is also a concern. Professor Eom explained, "Many have received vaccinations so far and are benefiting from their effects, but in the elderly, the preventive effect diminishes quickly. A significant number received their third dose in October to November last year, so by April, it will have been over three months, increasing the risk of severe illness if infected."

Meanwhile, the government is accelerating the procurement of additional COVID-19 oral antiviral treatments to address the shortage of Paxlovid supply. It has decided to quickly import 100,000 doses of molnupiravir (product name Lagevrio), produced by the U.S. pharmaceutical company Merck & Co. Jeon Hae-cheol, the 2nd Deputy Head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (Minister of the Interior and Safety), stated, "In addition to the 95,000 doses of Paxlovid scheduled for import in April, we are pushing for early procurement of additional oral antiviral treatments."