[The Editors' Verdict] Next Year's Presidential Race Will Be Decided by the Final Moderates

Park Sang-byeong (Political Commentator)

With just about three months left until next year’s presidential election, the approval ratings of Lee Jae-myung, the candidate from the Democratic Party of Korea, and Yoon Seok-youl, the candidate from the People Power Party, are generally within the margin of error. Although there are slight differences depending on the polling agency, methodology, and timing, the consensus is that the race is very close. While Yoon’s long-standing lead has weakened, Lee’s support has gained momentum, resulting in a tight contest.

However, there are still three months remaining until the election, which is a very long time on the Korean presidential election clock. During this period, there will be several turning points, and public opinion trends will fluctuate repeatedly. Various media outlets and social media platforms are broadcasting the candidates’ schedules and discourse almost in real-time, and the struggle for influence and public opinion battles between the supporters and opponents of both candidates are intensifying daily. Considering the high level of public interest in politics, the election atmosphere, especially the public opinion war, is essentially a “political civil war.”

So, it is not difficult to guess what is meaningful to consider about the election outlook at this point. First, it is important how successfully Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl can consolidate their support bases. Generational, ideological, and regional differences will be relatively clear, but there will be no large gaps. This is because if the election is close, support base consolidation will be stronger than expected. Of course, the “camp confrontation” is the structural factor. For example, people in their 40s and 50s, reformists, and those from Honam form one group. Conversely, those aged 60 and above, conservatives, and people from Yeongnam form another group. The key lies in relatively free voters who do not belong to either group.

The so-called “moderate voters” are often those who stand somewhat apart from the camp confrontation. They tend to be relatively free from generational, ideological, and regional constraints and are rational and pragmatic. At present, it appears that about 30% of voters fall into this category. If they lean toward one side, there could be a significant difference or even a reversal in the candidates’ poll numbers. Therefore, after consolidating the support bases, the next challenge is to recognize that the election outcome could be entirely different depending on which side embraces the moderate voters.

If the competition in approval ratings remains close, the “weak link” among the moderate voters will early on choose one side, making a kind of “strategic choice” to form a trend. Nevertheless, many voters refuse to support either side and continue to observe the situation and analyze the candidates until the end. These are the so-called “final moderates.” They make up about one-third of the moderate voters. It is possible that the 2030 generation (MZ generation) will be significantly included in this election. The final moderates generally account for less than 10% of the total electorate. If even that 10% is split between Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl, the election could be decided by just a few hundred thousand votes. Conversely, if one candidate can attract more of the final moderates within that 10%, the election outcome could be decided by a margin of about 5% in the vote share. This trend can be seen in the victories of former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Park Geun-hye in past elections.

This election is an unprecedented confrontation between camps. The unfavorable ratings for both Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl are also at record highs. Conversely, third-party politics has already declined. Therefore, the MZ generation (Millennials + Generation Z) is even more important. Strategies to reduce unfavorable ratings toward presidential candidates are urgently needed. Measures to improve political standards and policy capabilities are also necessary. In particular, it is essential to grasp that a forward-looking perspective is more important than in the past. The final moderates, though not numerous, must be mindful that outdated rhetoric and behavior are the enemy of all.