[Global Issue+] Ukraine as the Frontline of the New Cold War...Concerns over a Second 'Crimea Incident'

President Zelensky "Uncovered Russian-backed Coup Plot"
Over 100,000 Russian Troops Gathered...Concerns of Full-scale War Early Next Year

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As more than 100,000 Russian troops gather near the border with Ukraine, tensions are rising, raising concerns that a situation similar to the forced annexation of Crimea in 2014 could occur. The Ukrainian government is hoping that the United States and NATO European member countries will approve its NATO membership and promise stable defense. However, with winter approaching and most natural gas supplies coming from Russia, Western European countries are opposing Ukraine's NATO membership due to fears of an all-out war with Russia. There are concerns that if Russia invades Ukraine swiftly, it will be difficult to stop.

According to foreign media including Voice of America (VOA) on the 27th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a press conference the day before, stating, "We have uncovered a coup plot by forces supported by Russia," and "Ukraine's intelligence agency obtained recordings of conversations between anonymous Russians and Ukrainians, in which they discussed overthrowing me through a coup around the 1st or 2nd of next month."

He added, "The coup forces planned to raise billions of dollars and involve Ukraine's top tycoon, Rinat Akhmetov, in the coup," emphasizing, "However, our military is fully controlling the border and is perfectly prepared for any conspiracy." However, no evidence was presented to verify the authenticity of the recordings.

Russia Denies Coup Involvement, Increases Troops in Border Area

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Russian government has completely denied President Zelensky's coup plot claims. Immediately after the announcement, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated at a press conference, "The claim that Russia was involved in plotting a coup is not true." Peskov emphasized, "Russia had no plans to participate and would never engage in such actions."

However, as Russian troops continue to build up near the Ukrainian border, concerns about a possible Russian invasion are increasing. According to CNN, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports that over 114,000 Russian troops are gathered along the border and in the eastern rebel regions, and there are fears that the eastern rebel areas could fall quickly if actual warfare breaks out.

The U.S. government has also reportedly recently informed NATO countries about the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, citing multiple sources, U.S. intelligence agencies shared information with NATO allies that Russia could mobilize about 100 tactical battalions, consisting of approximately 100,000 troops, to invade Ukraine from various locations including Crimea, the Russian border, and Belarus.

Sources say about half of these tactical battalions have already been deployed, and air support is expected once the invasion begins. To reinforce troops in the border area, the Russian government has also mobilized tens of thousands of reservists who have not been called up since the Soviet era. These reservists are expected to be deployed to the invaded areas to secure the territory.

Europe's Passive Response... Full-Scale War Difficult Due to Natural Gas Issues

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

European countries are feeling the security threat but are responding passively. While the Ukrainian government continues to hope for NATO membership approval, it is being rejected.

Earlier on the 14th, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview with the U.S. HBO network, "We know Ukraine wants to become a NATO member and seeks real protection from Russia," adding, "We are cooperating much more closely with Ukraine, but all 30 member countries must agree for Ukraine to join NATO, and so far, there is no consensus among members to admit Ukraine." This reiterated Europe's desire to avoid an all-out war with Russia.

European countries fear that if a full-scale war breaks out between Russia and NATO over the Ukraine issue, Russia might weaponize natural gas. In fact, in January 2009, when a dispute over gas supply prices arose with Ukraine, Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe during a severe cold spell, causing thousands of deaths by hypothermia in Eastern Europe.

Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, providing 43% of its demand, making it difficult to find alternative sources. Moreover, after the COVID-19 pandemic, supply-demand imbalances have caused global natural gas prices to surge and shortages to worsen, making it hard to secure natural gas itself.

The United States is also expected to focus on negotiations rather than conflict with Russia regarding the Ukraine issue, concentrating on containing China. Due to this, if Russia does invade Ukraine, there are concerns that the U.S. and Europe will find it difficult to respond swiftly.