Decline in Progressive Parties' Presence and Expectations... 'Glory Without Office,' Lessons from the 2000 General Election
Ulsan Buk-gu National Assembly Election 41.78%, Anticipation for First Progressive Party National Assembly Member
[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]
On the 17th, at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, during the "Save the Earth and Save People Chuseok" joint greeting event of the Justice Party and presidential candidates, presidential candidates Kim Yoon-ki, Sim Sang-jung, Hwang Soon-sik, and Lee Jeong-mi (from left to right in the front row), wearing sneakers gifted by party leader Yeo Young-guk, are performing an energetic running act. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@
The March 9, 2022 presidential election is just six months away, but the presence of progressive parties remains minimal. Although some politicians have thrown their hats into the ring, they remain in the background of public interest. Even when delivering bold political messages, they do not spark controversy. It is as if they have fallen into the ‘swamp of no comments,’ which is said to be more frightening than malicious comments in politics.
According to the Central Election Commission on the 24th, among the 19 presidential preliminary candidates, only one belongs to a progressive party: Kim Jae-yeon, leader of the Progressive Party. The number is expected to increase if politicians from the Justice Party who have declared their candidacy register as preliminary candidates.
However, it is questionable whether an increase in numbers will restore their presence. Progressive parties have rooted themselves in real politics by producing members of the National Assembly for over 20 years. Interestingly, the political dynamism during the time when progressive parties did not produce a single member of the National Assembly was greater than it is now.
The 16th general election in 2000, which could have changed the history of progressive politics, is a point that today’s progressive parties should revisit.
Before the 2000 16th general election, progressive parties did participate in real politics. Especially in the 1990s, there were the Minjung Party and the Construction National Victory 21 (Gukminseungri 21). The late Baek Ki-wan, director of the Unification Issues Research Institute, challenged the 1987 and 1992 presidential elections under the name of ‘Minjung candidate.’
Until 2000, they had not produced a single winner in either presidential or general elections. However, the National Victory 21, led by politician Kwon Young-gil, emerged as a dark horse in the 1997 presidential election, raising expectations for the 2000 16th general election.
The election that produced the first-ever progressive party member of the National Assembly was the 17th general election in 2004. But does that mean there was no chance to elect a member before the 17th general election? In the 2000 16th general election, they came close to crossing the threshold for election but fell short.
The 2000 16th general election was a heated election due to the anti-election and anti-nomination campaign by the Citizens’ Coalition for the General Election. It is also an unforgettable election from the perspective of progressive politics. The Democratic Labor Party achieved better-than-expected results nationwide, and the Youth Progressive Party attracted attention in the Seoul general election with bold pledges and election campaigns.
Both the Democratic Labor Party and the Youth Progressive Party were at a significant disadvantage in terms of recognition, an important factor in elections, compared to competing parties. Many voters cast their ballots without even knowing such parties existed.
The reason the 2000 16th general election holds special significance in political history for progressive parties is that it kindled the spark of possibility and expectation. The strong performance of progressive parties in the 2004 17th general election was built on the political achievements of the 2000 16th general election.
The young politicians of the Democratic Labor Party and the Youth Progressive Party presented bold pledges. Although their feasibility was questionable and sometimes seemed absurd, they attracted public attention. This was because their efforts reflected the yearning of workers, farmers, urban poor, and small business owners for a better world.
These efforts led to meaningful election results. In fact, the Ulsan Buk-gu National Assembly election could have changed the history of progressive politics. Democratic Labor Party candidate Choi Yong-gyu ran in Ulsan Buk-gu in the 2000 16th general election and received 18,867 votes (41.78%). He received more than four times the support of the Democratic Party candidate who ran in the same district.
In the Ulsan Buk-gu election, Hanara Party candidate Yoon Doo-hwan won with 19,430 votes (43.03%). The vote difference between Yoon and Choi was only 563 votes.
At that time, Choi Yong-gyu showed strength in areas such as Nongsu 2-dong, Nongsu 3-dong, Yangjeong-dong, and Yeompo-dong in Ulsan Buk-gu. If he had closed the gap in weaker areas and gathered more votes in strongholds, the first-ever election of a progressive party member to the National Assembly might have happened in 2000, not 2004.
Progressive party candidates also performed well in Seoul Gangbuk-gu and Gyeonggi-do Seongnam-si Jungwon-gu. Democratic Labor Party candidate Jeong Hyeong-ju, who ran in Seongnam Jungwon-gu, received 21.48% of the vote, a figure comparable to the 25.11% garnered by Hanara Party candidate Kim Il-ju.
Democratic Labor Party candidate Park Yong-jin, who ran in Seoul Gangbuk-eul, received 13.26% of the vote and placed third. The election surge of this young politician, not yet thirty years old, became a hot topic beyond Gangbuk-eul and throughout the Seoul general election. It was enough to raise hopes that politics could change.
The Youth Progressive Party also left a meaningful mark on the history of progressive politics in the 16th general election. They produced three candidates who exceeded 5% of the vote in Seoul National Assembly elections.
Jung Hoe-jin, who ran in Seoul Seongbuk-gap, received 5.21%; Nam Gyo-yong, who ran in Gangbuk-gap, received 5.02%; and Seol Jeong-eun, who ran in Gangdong-eul, received 5.38%. Seol Jeong-eun’s vote share was higher than that of the candidate from the United Liberal Democrats.
The nationwide strong performance of the Democratic Labor Party and the Seoul election success of the Youth Progressive Party led to expectations for change in politics, which had been perceived as stagnant like ‘stagnant water.’ It was enough to serve as a primer to further elevate progressive politics.
Why did Seoul voters at that time give more than 5%, even over 10%, support to candidates from parties with low chances of winning? Was it because of a desire for change in real politics and a wish to cheer on young politicians who were like eggs trying to break rocks?
Over the 20 years since the 2000 general election, the vote share of progressive party politicians in general elections has increased. They have also produced so-called star politicians. However, the political position of progressive parties in 2021 is not what it used to be. In terms of national expectations, the progressive parties of 2000, which did not produce a single member of the National Assembly, might have been in a superior position.
More than 2 million people chose progressive party candidates in the 2017 19th presidential election. Did progressive parties succeed in growing further on the foundation of the expectations of these 2 million people? Or did their political presence weaken? If expectations for progressive parties are not what they used to be, what is the reason?
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