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China, India COVID-19 Concerns as 'Black Swan' for China's Economy

230 Million Travelers During Labor Day Holiday and 19.66 Trillion Won in Tourism Revenue
Domestic Demand Recovers to Pre-COVID Levels... India’s COVID-19 and China’s Economic Black Swan Risks Warned

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] Chinese state media expressed strong confidence in China's economic growth this year, reporting that the number of people traveling during the Labor Day holiday period (May 1-5) reached 230 million (preliminary estimate).


Xinhua News Agency cited statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on the 6th, reporting that 230 million people enjoyed domestic tourism during the five-day Labor Day holiday. Xinhua stated that this figure represents an increase of 119.7% compared to the previous year and 103.3% compared to 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. The tourism revenue during the Labor Day holiday increased by 138.1% year-on-year to 113.23 billion yuan (approximately 19.6567 trillion KRW), according to Xinhua.


China, India COVID-19 Concerns as 'Black Swan' for China's Economy [Image source=Yonhap News]


The People's Daily reported on its front page that 267 million Chinese people traveled to tourist destinations and their hometowns using transportation such as railways, airlines, and private cars during the holiday period. On page 3, it emphasized that domestic consumption is a major growth driver for China and that this Labor Day holiday serves as a microcosm demonstrating the vitality of the Chinese economy. The People's Daily stated that total retail sales in China in the first quarter increased by 33.9% year-on-year and 8.5% compared to 2019, reaching 10.5221 trillion yuan (approximately 182.6531 trillion KRW), and predicted that household consumption will play a leading role in China's economic growth this year.


Global Times reported that consumption in China during this year's Qingming Festival holiday (April 3-5) and Labor Day holiday has recovered to normal levels and will contribute to GDP growth this year. Citing data from Qunar.com, a major Chinese online travel site, Global Times reported that the average spending per Chinese tourist during this year's Labor Day holiday reached 1,713 yuan (approximately 297,274 KRW). It also noted that duty-free sales at Hainan duty-free shops from May 1 to 3 amounted to 488 million yuan (approximately 84.7 billion KRW).


China, India COVID-19 Concerns as 'Black Swan' for China's Economy China Hainan Duty-Free Shop


Tian Yun, Vice Chairman of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, said, "Last year, the consumption sector was a burden on the Chinese economy due to COVID-19, but this year its contribution is expected to rise to 60% of GDP," adding, "This is similar to the pre-COVID-19 level in 2019, indicating that the Chinese economy has returned to normal." He expressed optimism that China's GDP will grow by about 8.5% year-on-year this year (considering the base effect).


However, Global Times warned that vigilance should not be relaxed due to risks such as the resurgence of COVID-19, expressing concern that India could become a 'black swan' for China's economic growth. The outlet noted that the spread of COVID-19 in India, which shares a border with China, is worrisome and added that if the Indian variant virus spreads, it could negatively impact the Chinese economy.


© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.

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