One Month Before the Seoul Mayor By-election... Candidates Focus on 'Home'

Success of Real Estate Policy at Stake
Key Pledges Including Gangnam Redevelopment
COVID-19 Measures Also a Challenge to Resolve

[Asia Economy Reporters Lim Cheol-young, Koo Chae-eun, Kim Hye-min, Lee Hyun-joo] The reason why the candidates for Seoul mayor, who have a "one-year term," are all pouring out "real estate policies" is the realistic recognition that success or failure will ultimately be determined by how they handle real estate issues. In fact, Park Young-sun of the Democratic Party (300,000 units), Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party (360,000 units), and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party (746,000 units) all presented exact numbers for housing supply and placed them as their top pledges.

The Seoul mayor holds strong powers such as floor regulations and various permits and approvals. Redevelopment and reconstruction in the Gangnam area can also accelerate depending on the policy direction of the Seoul mayor. However, the fact that the term lasts only one year is a fatal limitation. For example, Park’s plan to underground the Gyeongbu Expressway is generally assessed to take a considerable amount of time to materialize. Oh’s pledge to abolish the regulation limiting buildings to seven floors or less in the second-class general residential area requires amending ordinances. Among the 110 city council members, 102 belong to the Democratic Party. Even pledges that conflict with government policy directions may be difficult to fully implement considering the mayor’s authority.

Not only real estate measures but also stable management of COVID-19 vaccinations that began on the 26th of last month, infectious disease prevention measures, support for small business owners, youth unemployment support, and greenhouse gas reduction measures are tasks that the next Seoul mayor must solve beyond partisan logic. Since this election arose from the previous mayor’s sexual misconduct scandal, proposing countermeasures and alternatives is also important. Some suggest establishing an independent organization dedicated to sexual violence issues and creating a female vice mayor position, but there is a strong call for noticeable changes to prevent recurrence.

Meanwhile, how will the speed of the fourth disaster relief fund payment, criticized by the opposition as "vote-buying," affect this election? If the fourth disaster relief fund, up to 6.8 million won, is paid to 6.9 million self-employed and small business owners, the "national stability theory" may gain weight. The ruling party has pledged to pay the disaster relief fund just before the by-elections through supplementary budget review within March. Professor Choi Chang-ryeol of Yongin University said, "The payment of disaster relief funds will have a positive effect on the national stability theory," adding, "Ultimately, the by-elections will be a battle between the 'regime judgment theory' and the 'national stability theory.'" However, Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University said, "The voting tendency, which varies according to partisanship, is unlikely to change because of the disaster relief fund."