Lee Jae-myung Leads Presidential Preference with 20%, Surpassing Lee Nak-yeon in Honam Region

[Asia Economy (Suwon) = Reporter Lee Young-gyu] Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, has risen to the top spot in the next presidential election (presidential preference) survey in Honam for the first time, surpassing Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea.

He also took the sole first place ahead of Lee Nak-yeon and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl among Democratic Party supporters, progressives, and those in their 30s to 50s. In particular, among progressives, Governor Lee Jae-myung led with 34%, 8 percentage points ahead of Leader Lee Nak-yeon’s 26%.

In the December next presidential election survey recently released by Gallup Korea, Governor Lee Jae-myung recorded a sole first place with 20%, up 1 percentage point from the November survey.

Leader Lee Nak-yeon fell one rank to second place from a joint lead last month, dropping 3 percentage points to 16%. Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl maintained third place with 13%, up 2 percentage points.

Following them, Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, rose 1 percentage point to 4%, while Representative Hong Joon-pyo and former Representative Yoo Seung-min each received 1%. Other figures accounted for 4%, and the undecided group (none, don’t know, refusal to answer) decreased by 1 percentage point to 41%.

Governor Lee Jae-myung rose 6 percentage points to 27% in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do and Jeollabuk-do, narrowly surpassing Leader Lee Nak-yeon, who plunged 11 percentage points to 26%, by 1 percentage point. This is the first time in almost all surveys that Lee has overtaken Lee in Gwangju and Jeolla Province.

Among progressives, Governor Lee Jae-myung recorded 34%, up 4 percentage points, while Leader Lee Nak-yeon dropped 6 percentage points to 26%. Last month, Lee Jae-myung trailed Lee Nak-yeon by 2 percentage points. This is the largest margin by which Lee Jae-myung has led Lee Nak-yeon in Gallup Korea surveys.

Among supporters of Moon Jae-in, Leader Lee Nak-yeon fell 1% to 33%, and Governor Lee Jae-myung rose 5 percentage points to 30%, narrowing the gap between the two candidates from 9 percentage points to 3 percentage points, within the margin of error. Last month’s survey showed Leader Lee Nak-yeon at 32% and Governor Lee Jae-myung at 27%, a 5 percentage point gap.

Among Democratic Party supporters, Leader Lee Nak-yeon dropped 3 percentage points to 36%, while Governor Lee Jae-myung rose 4 percentage points to 31%. The gap between the two candidates narrowed significantly from 12 percentage points last month to 5 percentage points this month, within a single-digit margin of error.

These survey results are interpreted as a significant consolidation of the ruling party’s core support base?including Gwangju and Jeolla Province, progressives, and supporters of Moon Jae-in and the Democratic Party?shifting from Leader Lee Nak-yeon to Governor Lee Jae-myung.

Additionally, it is analyzed that during the escalation of the conflict between Chu Mi-ae and Yoon Seok-youl into the dismissal crisis of Yoon Seok-youl, the preference and attitude of the ruling party’s core supporters toward presidential candidates shifted from Leader Lee Nak-yeon to Governor Lee Jae-myung.

By detailed region and demographic, Governor Lee Jae-myung ranked first in Gwangju and Jeolla Province, Gyeonggi and Incheon, Seoul, all age groups under 50, and among centrists. Leader Lee Nak-yeon led in the Chungcheong region and Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam. Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl was first in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, among those aged 60 and over, and conservatives.

The Gallup Korea December next presidential election survey was conducted from December 1 to 3 over three days, targeting 1,000 people aged 18 and over nationwide (margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level) using wireless and wired RDD telephone interviews. The response rate was 15%.