[Opinion] The Fourth Industrial Revolution and Four Futures

Professor Seoyonggu, Department of Business Administration, Sookmyung Women's University

In March 2016, when Lee Sedol, a world-class Go player, was defeated by Google's 'AlphaGo,' people around the globe recognized that the Fourth Industrial Revolution led by artificial intelligence (AI) had officially begun. Four years later, in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic surged and the world rapidly shifted from a contact-based society to an untact society, we witnessed the acceleration of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Anxiety about the future has grown even stronger.

In futurology, which focuses on forecasting future societies and developing various scenarios, there are two commonly accepted beliefs about the future. First, the belief that "the future has already arrived" because the future is created by a combination of technologies already developed. Second, the belief that "the future is uncertain but is shaped by our choices." Living in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, we face four possible future scenarios.

The first scenario is dystopia. This is a scenario set in renowned futuristic science fiction novels such as Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World and George Orwell’s 1984, as well as hundreds of science fiction (SF) movies. Although the causes vary, the world ultimately becomes desolate and dangerous. There is also fear of a society where science and technology are highly advanced but strictly controlled. A digital dystopia is a society where individual uniqueness is lost and people are monitored 24/7 by digital powers. When young people in Japan and Korea refer to their situation as 'Hell,' it often means tighter and fewer opportunities than previous generations, high living costs, and employment difficulties.

The second scenario is retropia. This is a future perspective that dreams of returning to the past. It represents the human instinct to give up on future possibilities and revert to the past when anxiety and confusion about the future increase. Since 2008, this has appeared in several places, mainly in so-called advanced countries like the United States and Western Europe. Four years ago, Trump stimulated voters with the retropian slogan "Make America Great Again" and was elected president of the United States. If you find yourself empathizing daily with "Oh, those were the days," you can diagnose yourself as having a retropian view of the future.

The third scenario is utopia. The term originates from the 1516 English satirical novel by Thomas More and represents the most desirable scenario. Utopia has become a common noun referring to an ideal world that exists only in imagination. While a utopian view of the future can be comforting on a personal imaginative level, attempts to realize a utopian society can cause many side effects and sacrifices.

The fourth scenario is protopia. A blend of "process" and "utopia," this concept was advocated by American futurist Kevin Kelly in his book The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future. In short, when viewed coldly and in detail, the world is continuously improving. It is creating a better place to live. Kelly points out that deaths from violence and disease are decreasing, and issues such as animal abuse and discrimination against people with disabilities are steadily improving. Although this may seem unfamiliar to those who only see news about environmental pollution, deaths, and fake news daily, it encourages the belief that the world might be better than we think.

The future is something we must create. If we can choose, we should ultimately adopt the last scenario. Let us set aside emotions and examine the data carefully. The world is not as bad as we think. Compared to ten years ago, South Korea’s international recognition, economic power, and soft power have risen to astonishing levels. The world is continuously improving. Today, protopian thinking?believing in a "steadily improving future" and a "better future than today"?is more urgently needed than ever.