"Winter is Coming"... Fear of Second Wave in Europe and Other Northern Hemisphere Regions

Concerns Grow Over Resurgence in Spain, France, and Others
Local Lockdowns Chosen Instead of Nationwide, but Resistance Grows
Economic Recovery Also Unavoidably Impacted

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] As winter approaches, the risk of a resurgence of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is increasing in Europe, the United States, and other regions. In Europe, which experienced a massive outbreak this spring, recent rapid spread of COVID-19 has led to forecasts that it is facing a "decisive moment" that will determine whether it leads to a second major wave.

On the 26th (local time), the international statistics site Worldometer reported that France recorded 14,412 new COVID-19 cases. According to the data, France is showing a more severe spread of COVID-19 than in the spring of this year. In New York, USA, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced that 1,005 people tested positive for COVID-19. It is the first time since June 5 that New York's daily new cases have exceeded 1,000. As the number of confirmed cases rises again in New York, which was considered a major hotspot for COVID-19 in the U.S. this spring, tension is increasing. Russia is also showing an upward trend, with 7,212 new confirmed cases reported.

The streets in the Madrid area of Spain have become quiet due to the lockdown measures imposed.
[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Foreign media such as The Washington Post (WP) have emphasized the risks as northern hemisphere countries experience increasing COVID-19 cases amid gradually colder weather. The newspaper added that experts had already predicted that if schools and workplaces resumed during the summer when the spread had slowed, cases would rise again in the fall. Indeed, as autumn arrives, COVID-19 cases are increasing. As the weather gets colder, citizens will tend to stay indoors, which could lead to the spread of colds and flu, exacerbating the crisis.

Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease expert at Toronto General Hospital in Canada, said, "It is now September. If you live in the northern hemisphere, you are facing a long autumn and winter ahead."

Europe is responding by implementing limited lockdowns in areas where cases surge, rather than large-scale lockdowns like last spring. This approach considers economic impact, but it has also intensified conflicts between central and local governments.

In Spain, the central government insists on strong movement restrictions, while the Madrid regional government opposes them. The central government is left-wing, and the Madrid regional government is right-wing. They have clashed over responsibility for the economic downturn and rising death toll following the large-scale lockdowns last spring. France also imposed a large-scale lockdown around Marseille but faced turmoil. The Marseille regional government has opposed the measures, calling them an "insult." France fears the situation in Marseille could spread to other regions if not stabilized, but the Marseille regional government maintains that the situation is under control.

The economic situation is also concerning. As the virus spreads rapidly in Europe, voices are rising that the European economy is increasingly likely to fall into a double-dip recession. Europe's GDP fell sharply by 11.8% in the second quarter of this year, and it could plunge again in the fourth quarter. Karsten Brzeski, ING's chief economist, said, "The likelihood of a double-dip recession in the fourth quarter is increasing," and predicted, "More regional lockdowns will be announced gradually." Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit, said, "The risks have increased as we approach the fourth quarter," adding, "This will constrain economic growth."