[Politics, On That Day...] The 3% Party Vote Rate 'Wall' That Brought Tears to a 9-Term National Assembly Member

If Anyone Forms a Party, Will They Surpass 3%? High and Challenging Proportional Representation Threshold... Lessons from 2004 Jaminryun, Defeated Before JP's 10-Term Milestone

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] ‘Politics, On That Day…’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, or figures.

Kim Jong-pil, Photo by Asia Economy DB

There are political leaders who can be likened to ‘mountain ranges.’ These are individuals who have experienced the turbulent history of Korean politics with their whole being. YS (former President Kim Young-sam), DJ (former President Kim Dae-jung), and JP (former Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil) are representative figures. Just hearing their English initials immediately identifies them; only a handful of people in the history of the Republic of Korea are recognized with such political weight.

Two of them fulfilled their presidential dreams. The other remained an eternal second-in-command. JP is the figure who challenged a realm in Korean political history that neither YS, DJ, nor any other politician had ever reached. JP passed away in June 2018 at the age of 92.

General elections held every four years. Achieving ten terms as a member of the National Assembly means having served as a lawmaker for 40 years. Of course, there were times in the tumultuous political history when the four-year term was not fully guaranteed, but achieving ten terms is synonymous with winning ten elections.

In practical politics, ten terms might be a dream record that no one can achieve. JP was the most recent figure to challenge the ten-term milestone. In fact, it was not a difficult challenge. On election day, when the ballot boxes were opened and votes counted, it seemed JP would make new history in Korea as a ten-term National Assembly member.

However, politics is ruthless. Being called by the people is no easy task. The 17th general election on April 15, 2004, was an election intertwined with many events worth reflecting on for a long time. The United Liberal Democrats (ULD) was a party that produced 50 elected members in the 15th general election in 1996, including 41 constituency members and 9 proportional representatives.

Mourners are paying their respects at the funeral hall of the late former Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil, set up at Seoul Asan Medical Center in Songpa-gu, Seoul, on the 24th. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

The equation ‘ULD = JP’ was formed to the extent that JP was a political giant representing the Chungcheong region. Using Chungcheong as a political base, the ULD expanded its influence. However, politically, the limitations of a Chungcheong-centered party became apparent in the South Korean political order dominated by the Yeongnam and Honam regions and the metropolitan area based on population composition.

The 17th general election is an unforgettable election in the political history of the ULD. JP ran as the number 1 candidate on the proportional representation list. If the party vote rate exceeded the minimum threshold of 3%, JP could become a proportional representative lawmaker. The minimum number of constituency seats required was at least five to qualify for proportional representation seats.

In the 16th general election in 2000, the ULD produced 17 elected members, including 12 constituency members and 5 proportional representatives. Although the party’s power had weakened by 2004, it was still the ULD. Most predictions expected the party to comfortably surpass the 3% threshold required to produce proportional representatives.

However, as the vote counting progressed, an unusual trend emerged. It became clear that the party was struggling in both constituency and proportional representation elections. On the night of April 15, as the counting proceeded and only 3 to 4 areas in Chungnam showed dominance, the ULD went into emergency mode.

JP watched the vote count results from the ULD president’s office that night before heading home. Could it be that he sensed the atmosphere of frustration in the 17th general election, which could be recorded as his last political candidacy?

If the party produced at least five constituency winners or recorded a party vote rate of 3% or more, JP’s achievement of ten terms would have been possible. ULD party officials felt relieved when the number of likely constituency winners exceeded five during the counting process but became anxious again as the numbers slipped.

It was not only the constituency elections that triggered alarms. The party vote rate hovered precariously around the 3% threshold. At one point, it surpassed 3%, but as counting continued, it fell below 3% again. The final results after the vote counting were despairing.

The ULD’s party vote rate was recorded at 2.82%. It failed to surpass the 3% threshold. Although 600,462 people nationwide cast their votes for the ULD, surpassing the 3% limit was no easy task. In constituencies, the party ended with four elected members in Chungnam, falling short of the minimum five seats required for proportional representation allocation.

On the 10th, under clear autumn weather, fluffy cumulus clouds floated gently in the sky beyond the National Assembly building in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

The ULD’s dismal results culminated in JP’s failure to reach the ten-term milestone.

The history of JP, a giant in Korean politics, was thus fading. Ahead of the 21st general election on April 15, various parties dreamed of securing seats by founding new parties or forming preparatory committees.

According to the Central Election Commission on the 17th, there are 36 registered parties and 20 parties preparing to be founded. Does this mean up to 56 parties will participate and compete in the election? Many parties (preparatory committees) are expected to withdraw from running in the general election due to costs, personnel, and chances of winning.

Surpassing the 3% party vote rate is by no means an easy challenge. In the 20th general election, only four parties surpassed the 3% threshold: Saenuri Party, People’s Party, Democratic Party of Korea, and Justice Party (in order of party vote rate).

The introduction of the semi-proportional representation system is an environmental change that alters the soil of Korean politics, but the wall of practical politics is formidable. Will the number of parties surpassing the 3% party vote rate, which was only four in the 20th general election, increase in the 21st general election? If parties proliferate, votes will be dispersed, making it harder to secure party vote rates. Every party dreams of surpassing 3%, but even nine-term lawmakers have not overcome the 3% vote rate barrier.