AI Adoption Meets Labor Shortages
Wage Structure Realigns Around Skill Proficiency
In Japan, the market value of blue-collar workers with irreplaceable skills is soaring, while white-collar office workers are facing an "income reversal" phenomenon as their positions are threatened by artificial intelligence (AI).
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and the private think tank Recruit Works Institute, which studies changes in the labor market and demographic structure, the average annual salary in 2024 for automobile maintenance and repair workers in Japan reached 4,804,100 yen (about 44.71 million won), surpassing that of general office workers at 4,676,500 yen (about 43.57 million won. The annual salary for construction site workers such as carpenters and scaffolders was 4,921,300 yen, higher than that of most major office job categories except for planning positions such as marketing and design (6,298,400 yen).
White-collar workers, by contrast, have been hit directly by the introduction of generative AI. In occupations such as secretaries and general office workers, where the work automation rate has exceeded 60%, the relative value of labor has declined. On the other hand, in maintenance and construction jobs such as carpenters, scaffolders, and automobile maintenance and repair, the impact of AI-driven automation was less than 10%.
The biggest reason behind this trend is a "chronic shortage of irreplaceable workers." The job openings-to-applicants ratio (number of jobs per one job seeker) for construction site workers stands at 9.38. As on-site labor has become so scarce, companies are engaging in fierce competition to recruit these workers by offering exceptionally high wages.
Differences in wage growth rates between industries were also pronounced. An analysis by the Recruit Works Institute of average wage growth rates in 2024 compared to 2020 showed increases of 38.3% for taxi drivers, 31.7% for carpenters and scaffolders, and 20.6% for metal technicians. In contrast, wage growth was minimal in the medical, education, and care sectors, where wages are tied to government-regulated fair prices. For care workers, whose workforce numbers 1.07 million, wages rose only 3.4%, while nurses, with 780,000 workers, saw just a 5.7% increase. Doctors actually experienced an 8.5% decline.
Experts predict that, based on these changes, the labor market will shift from white-collar to blue-collar jobs in the future. They also expect active movement of workers between these blue-collar occupations themselves, given the large wage gaps that exist even within blue-collar job categories.
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