Individuals Bet on KOSPI Hitting 6,000 After 5,800 Breakthrough... Foreign Investors Expect a Decline

Individuals net buy KODEX 200 and other ETFs, betting on index gains
Foreign investors, by contrast, buy the most "Gopbus" ETFs

As the KOSPI has broken through the 5,800 level as well, drawing market attention to the prospect of it reaching 6,000 points, it has emerged that individual investors are betting on a continued rise in the KOSPI. In contrast, foreign investors are positioning for a decline in the KOSPI.

According to ETF Check on the 23rd, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) that individuals net bought the most over the past week was KODEX 200. Individual investors net bought 151.2 billion won worth of KODEX 200, effectively betting on a rise in the KOSPI. KODEX 200 tracks the KOSPI 200 index. In addition, individuals heavily purchased ETFs that generate profits when the index rises, placing them at the top of the net buying list, such as KODEX KOSDAQ 150 (89.9 billion won), KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Leverage (57.1 billion won), and TIGER 200 (48.3 billion won), indicating that they expect the upward trend in both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ to continue.

They also net bought securities ETFs that benefit from a strong stock market. Over the past week, individuals net bought 82.9 billion won of the KODEX Securities ETF. With securities stocks rising amid the recent market strength, KODEX Securities gained 22.24% over the past week. Lee Jaewon, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, "Securities stocks are the biggest beneficiaries of the KOSPI record-high rally," adding, "Expectations for strong earnings are being priced in, driven by expanded shareholder returns and increases in trading value, customer deposits, and margin balances."

Foreign investors, on the other hand, have been seen betting on a decline in the KOSPI. Over the past week, foreign investors net bought 36.9 billion won of KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X, making it their largest purchase. KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X, nicknamed "Gopverse," delivers twice the return when the KOSPI 200 index falls. Foreign investors also net bought 7.2 billion won of KODEX Inverse, making it their third-largest purchase. While they are expecting the KOSPI to fall, foreign investors are simultaneously betting on a rise in the KOSDAQ. During the same period, they net bought KODEX KOSDAQ 150 (18.1 billion won) and KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Leverage (6.8 billion won).

On the 19th, the KOSPI climbed above the 5,700 level for the first time in history, and on the 20th it broke through the 5,800 level as well, extending its rally. Lee Kyungmin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, analyzed, "As risk-averse funds that had moved to the sidelines over the holiday period returned and previously pent-up buy-on-dip demand flowed in all at once, the KOSPI resumed its all-time-high rally."

There are forecasts that the strength of the KOSPI will continue through the first half of the year. Kim Daejun, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, "We expect the KOSPI to rise in the first half and move sideways in the second half," adding, "The main basis for the steep rise in the index is the sharp increase in semiconductor earnings, and a semiconductor-led rally is likely to continue during the first half." Korea Investment & Securities revised its year-end KOSPI target from 5,650 points to 7,250 points.