The Large-Caliber Rocket Launcher Presentation Ceremony Is 'Only the Beginning' [Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club]

North Korea signals mass production of tactical nuclear warheads ahead of Party Congress
May unveil weapons armed with "Hwasan-31" tactical nuclear warheads

Observers believe North Korea will continue moving to strengthen its nuclear armament. Last month, North Korea signaled that Chairman of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jongun would present the "next stage of nuclear war deterrence," and the prevailing view is that he will lay out plans for an additional nuclear test and the mass production of tactical nuclear warheads.

Korean Central Television reported on the 19th that, with Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, in attendance, a ceremony was held on the 18th at the Pyongyang April 25 House of Culture square to present 50 600-mm large-caliber multiple rocket launchers to the working class of the munitions industry for the 9th Workers' Party Congress. Photo by Yonhap News (Korean Central Television footage)

On the 19th, the Korean Central News Agency reported that, ahead of the 9th Party Congress, a presentation ceremony for 600 mm large-caliber multiple rocket launchers was held in Pyongyang the previous day. The agency said that the working class of key munitions enterprises had increased production over two months to add 50 large-caliber multiple rocket launchers and present them to the 9th Party Congress, and it carried footage showing 50 large-caliber rocket launchers on display at the April 25 House of Culture, the venue of the 9th Party Congress. The ceremony presenting the large-caliber rocket launchers is being analyzed as part of the mass production of tactical nuclear warheads. With a large number of 600 mm rocket launchers mounted on launch vehicles being revealed, North Korea effectively signaled that this weapons system has entered the deployment phase. Based on their range, which approaches 400 km, and their guidance capabilities, South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities classify the 600 mm rocket launcher as a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM).

Kim Jongun expected to unveil plans to strengthen nuclear capabilities

According to what North Korea released last month, Kim said, "The 9th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea will be the occasion to proclaim the next-stage plan for further strengthening the country's nuclear war deterrent." This is being analyzed as a new five-year plan related to nuclear war deterrence to be announced at the Party Congress. The Party Congress is North Korea's largest political event, held once every five years, where the basic lines of external and domestic policy for the next five years are set.

Possibility of promoting various weapons carrying the Hwasan-31

At the Party Congress, North Korea may unveil various nuclear delivery systems and present plans for increasing their numbers or deploying them in the field. When Chairman Kim Jongun visited the Nuclear Weapons Institute in 2023, he revealed an actual tactical nuclear warhead he named "Hwasan-31." North Korea has claimed that the Hwasan-31 can be mounted on more than 10 types of weapons, including the 600 mm super-large multiple rocket launcher (KN-25), the unmanned underwater attack craft Haeil, the Hwasal-1 and Hwasal-2 cruise missiles, the KN-24 (ATACMS-type), and a mini submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). Subsequently, in his speech on September 9, the anniversary of the founding of the North Korean regime, and during his visit to the armored defensive weapon research institute of the Academy of Defense Sciences last year, he revealed plans to increase the number of nuclear weapons and to deploy them operationally.

Threat of deployment through mass production

There is also discussion of dispersing the nuclear-armed delivery systems that have been developed so far across land, sea, and air. The South Korean military authorities estimate the yield of the Hwasan-31 at 10 kt (1 kt is equivalent to the explosive power of 1,000 tons of TNT). When North Korea carried out its third nuclear test in 2009, it demonstrated an explosive yield of 5 kt. If North Korea mounts the Hwasan-31 on eight types of new ballistic missiles such as the KN-23, KN-24, and KN-25, which were developed to strike South Korea, the nuclear strike threat against the entire territory of South Korea becomes a reality. The KN-23 (maximum range 800 km), KN-24 (600 km), and KN-25 (400 km) are all capable of covering the whole of South Korea.

North Korea previously reported that it had held a ceremony to hand over 250 launchers for new tactical ballistic missiles to be deployed along the front line to operational units. Each launcher is equipped with four launch tubes, meaning that, arithmetically, if all 250 launchers were fired at once, up to 1,000 missiles could be launched in a single salvo.

Shin Jongwoo, secretary general of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "The 'new large-caliber rocket launcher (600 mm),' which North Korea launched on the 27th as a nuclear-capable ballistic missile, is notable for having an increased number of launch tubes," adding, "By standardizing the new large-caliber rocket launcher, North Korea could mass-produce multiple launchers equipped with tactical nuclear warheads."