"Nvidia Vera Rubin HBM4 Expected To See Three-Way Battle Among Samsung, SK Hynix, And Micron"

TrendForce: Samsung Electronics Likely to Secure Certification First
Rising DRAM Prices Narrow HBM Profitability Gap

The next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) HBM4, which will be mounted on Nvidia's next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) chip Vera Rubin, is expected to be supplied in a three-way race among Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Market research firm TrendForce said on the 13th (local time), "Samsung Electronics is expected to obtain certification first based on strong product stability," adding, "After that, SK Hynix and Micron will join in, forming a three-company supply chain ecosystem."

Huang Jensen unveils Vera Rubin GPU. Yonhap News

This is a different picture from the structure in which SK Hynix has effectively led the supply of fourth- and fifth-generation products HBM3 and HBM3E. Samsung Electronics has faced difficulties in the Nvidia certification process for HBM3E due to yield and performance issues, and Micron has also shown limitations in terms of production capacity constraints and market share expansion.

Semiconductor analysis firm SemiAnalysis had earlier assessed that Micron was effectively eliminated from Nvidia's HBM4 supply chain, but Micron officially refuted this on the 11th, saying it had already begun HBM4 shipments to customers.

TrendForce cited the sharp rise in DRAM prices as the background for the possibility that Nvidia will include all three companies in its supply chain. As DRAM prices have risen since the fourth quarter of last year, the profitability advantage of HBM has narrowed, and as a result, memory makers have a stronger incentive to reallocate production capacity toward DRAM, where profitability has recovered. In this environment, Nvidia is seen as having no other choice but to adopt a supply chain diversification strategy to reduce dependence on any single supplier.

Samsung Electronics on the 12th officially announced the start of mass production shipments of HBM4, and SK Hynix is also expected to begin supplying Nvidia within the first quarter. In particular, SK Hynix is reportedly allocated about two-thirds of Nvidia's HBM4 volume for this year, leading to assessments that it is highly likely to maintain its leadership.

Regarding Micron, TrendForce predicted that "although its development speed is relatively slow, it will complete verification by the second quarter."