Japanese Prime Minister to Visit Seoul in Late March...Where Will Shuttle Diplomacy Go from Here?

Japan Also Weighing Plan to Send Vice-Minister Instead of Minister to “Takeshima Day” Ceremony

According to Japanese media reports on the 13th, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae is expected to visit South Korea at the end of March. This visit appears to be a return visit following President Lee Jaemyung’s trip to Japan in January. A visit to Andong, President Lee’s hometown, is reportedly being seriously considered. In addition, as it has emerged that the Japanese government is adjusting the level of its delegation to send a vice-minister-level official, instead of a minister-level cabinet member, to the ceremony for “Takeshima Day” (Japan’s claimed name for Dokdo), a politically sensitive issue between South Korea and Japan, the virtuous-cycle momentum in bilateral relations is expected to continue for the time being.

Lee Jaemyung and Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi are taking a commemorative photo at Horyu-ji (Beopryungsa), a representative cultural heritage site in Nara Prefecture, Japan, on the 14th of last month. Photo provided by the Blue House.

Although there were initial concerns about a rightward shift after the Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory in Japan’s House of Representatives election, the Takaichi Cabinet’s center of gravity is expected to tilt toward people’s livelihoods and the economy. Citing a Yomiuri Shimbun public opinion poll, an official from South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs analyzed, “Since voters chose measures to tackle prices and the economy as their top priority, the core of governance will be the economy.” This is interpreted as meaning that the election outcome reflects strong expectations for Prime Minister Takaichi’s economic policies, rather than serving primarily as a political or ideological judgment.

Experts also see the likelihood of a rapid rightward shift as low. Choi Eunmi, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, explained, “Securing a large number of seats can speed up policy implementation, but it will not be easy to move straight toward constitutional revision,” adding, “Since she was elected with support from moderates and independents, putting her ideological orientation fully at the forefront would entail significant political burdens, including in future party leadership elections.”

Hosaka Yuji, a professor at Sejong University, focused on the “pragmatic character” of the Takaichi administration. Professor Hosaka said, “Prime Minister Takaichi had previously pledged to send a minister-level official, but adjusted the level in consideration of South Korea-Japan relations.” Since 2013, Japan has been sending a parliamentary secretary, who is at the vice-minister level, to the Takeshima Day event. However, Prime Minister Takaichi had pledged during past Liberal Democratic Party leadership contests that she would “send a minister-level official.” Professor Hosaka analyzed, “The Takaichi administration is likely to show a ‘give-and-take’ attitude, accepting the other side’s demands when it makes its own, and in pursuit of diplomatic success, it can lower the response level for Takeshima Day to the vice-minister level and still persuade the conservative wing of the Liberal Democratic Party.”