Ceasefire Stalemate... "Israel Preparing to Forcibly Disarm Hamas"

Ceasefire Brokered by U.S. in October Last Year
No Disarmament Measures Taken by Hamas
Israel Defense Forces Drawing Up Operational Plans

Israeli soldiers are moving in Rafah in the Gaza Strip. AP/Yonhap News

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Palestinian militant faction Hamas has effectively reached an impasse, and the Israel Defense Forces are reportedly planning a new offensive aimed at disarming Hamas.

The Times of Israel reported on the 10th (local time) that, as the ceasefire between the two sides enters its fourth month, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are drawing up plans for a renewed offensive in the Gaza Strip to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities.

The two sides entered into a ceasefire in October last year under the peace initiative of U.S. President Donald Trump, but the disarmament of Hamas, which was included in the U.S.-proposed ceasefire framework, has not yet been carried out.

The IDF Southern Command, which oversees the Gaza Strip, has in recent weeks been formulating operational plans in preparation for a possible order from the political leadership to forcibly disarm Hamas.

A senior Israeli security official said, "We assess that Hamas will not voluntarily lay down its weapons, and the likelihood that the Israel Defense Forces will have to move to forcibly disarm the group is growing."

On the 4th, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also warned, "If Hamas does not carry out disarmament in line with the agreed framework, we will dismantle all of Hamas's capabilities."

If the Israel Defense Forces launch a military operation against Hamas, it is expected to be more intense than before the ceasefire. This is because, under the terms of the ceasefire, all remaining Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip, both survivors and the bodies of the dead, have been returned.

In particular, areas such as Deir al-Balah in central Gaza and Al-Mawasi on the western coastline, where the Israel Defense Forces did not deploy ground troops during the war, are also expected to be included as targets of the operation.

The key question is whether President Trump will allow the Israel Defense Forces to resume hostilities. When the ceasefire was concluded in October last year, he indicated that he would tolerate additional Israeli military action if Hamas did not release the remaining Israeli hostages, but circumstances have since changed.

The outlet analyzed that, given the Peace Committee chaired by President Trump is scheduled to hold its first meeting on the 19th to discuss postwar governance and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Forces' hard-line posture may not be welcome news for him.